How David Cameron could have avoided all of this

The renegotiation of the UK’s term of membership of the EU and its subsequent rejection in a referendum is the most comprehensive defeat for the British governing class since the meltdown of the post-War consensus during the twin failures of the Heath government and then the Callaghan government in the Winter of Discontent. This is not a rant against the Establishment or elites. Contrary to what you hear, the British civil service is pretty good and ministers who moan about it too much are usually (not always) just bad at motivating people. Sir John Chilcot has just shown that the mandarin class can still produce serious work, and in the upper echelons are talented, smart people.

I mean simply that the Whitehall ruling orthodoxy – of the UK embedded permanently in a fixed system of alliances, with the EU the most important of all – has been rejected by a majority of British voters. The effects of this reverse and the required readjustment will ripple out across the years. I think the possibilities once the short-term trouble (of which there will be a great amount) are exciting, although I understand why Remain friends emphasise only the negatives, having just suffered an epic defeat.

Historians will ask whether it could it have been avoided. Ironically, as a moderate Leaver, I think it could have been, if David Cameron had approached the period immediately after the election in relation to the EU differently.

Imagine if Cameron had done the following:

1) Late last year embarked on the renegotiations with asking for a proper EU-wide rethink on freedom of movement. It is said this is one of the “EU’s values” that is non-negotiable as though it is holy writ. It comes from a pact signed as recently as the 1950s – before mass travel, and when the EEC was only six countries. In the UK’s case it has become increasingly apparent that free movement cannot operate without some controls, or there is the risk of democratic consent being destroyed.

2) Cameron says early this year to the EU: let’s create a proper two-speed EU with associate member status (but still membership) which allows for flexibility on freedom of movement. This would have denied Leave its main campaigning card in any eventual referendum.

3) This would have been rejected by the EU, of course, and probably even by Merkel.

4) At which point Cameron says in the February or March to the EU’s leaders: “Look, I have tried to negotiate in good faith here, but you are really not waking up to what has changed. The migration crisis, and fears over social cohesion and globalisation, are leading us to a smash. I’m going back to the UK to make a speech. Let’s talk later this year.”

5) Cameron lands back in the UK and says: “I am a European and I want to stay in the EU, but I must say that our partners do not seem to grasp the extreme seriousness of the situation. It is with a heavy heart that I am forming a Brexit unit in Whitehall reporting to me. It will calmly consider the practicalities of departure from the EU – and generate a Plan B for Britain outside the EU – if there is no substantial shift soon. I hope to stay in, but we have a duty to prepare for the alternative.”

6) Get the Brexit unit to produce papers every month. Build a trade negotiating capacity and start to pay more attention to Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Cameron then makes more speeches later this year with a serious face on, some of them in EU capitals. Warns that the EU must change or the British may leave.

7) Wait

8) Do not hold a referendum this year

9) In mid to late 2017 make a decision. Either the EU would have woken up, or it would not and the Prime Minister, Whitehall and Britain would have spent a year working on a plan in the event of a Leave vote in a late-2017 referendum. Cameron would have been in a much better position; no-one would have heard of Andrea Leadsom.

My scenario is a historical counter-factual and all way too late now. But would it have worked? I would like to hear readers thoughts. You can send a letter to the Reaction team here.