A Turkish invasion of Greek islands cannot be ruled out

Turkey’s President Erdogan has just said the following: “We have one sentence to Greece: Don’t forget Izmir”. State to state messages don’t get much more incendiary than that.

Erdogan was referencing the crushing defeat of Greek forces on the Turkish mainland in 1922, and the Turkish army’s entry into Izmir on September 9^th of that year. Massacres of Greeks and Armenians followed and, on the 13^th, a fire broke out which destroyed the Greek and Armenian quarters of the city. Tens of thousands of refugees then crowded into the port area trying to escape, with many jumping into the water. To this day, nationalist Turkish politicians make “jokes” about “Teaching Greeks to swim”.

The jibe by the Turkish leader follows weeks of rising tension between the two countries on a range of issues culminating in Erdogan saying last weekend that:”When the time comes, we’ll do what’s necessary. As we say, we may come down suddenly one night.” This was a reference to the Greek islands which Erdogan argues are Turkish and therefore under occupation. There are other islands which Ankara says are mandated to be demilitarised but on which Greece has positioned weapons.  He stressed that “opposite the Aegean islands is stationed the biggest landing fleet in Europe and a full Turkish army group”.

The Greek response to what it called “openly threatening” comments came from Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias – “I would advise anybody who dreams of attacks and conquest to consider three or four times”. So, that’s two NATO “allies” squaring up in the Aegean. Why now?

Turkey and Greece have a range of issues dividing them any of which can be heated up at a time of choosing. The Greek view is that Turkey, having alienated most neighbours and NATO allies, is now using the energy crisis as part of a long-term plan to isolate Greece. Hence, it is said, the recent rapprochement with Israel which could lead to a routing of gas pipes from the Levant region through Turkey and up to EU countries. As Erdogan said this week, “We have no problem with gas. Europe reaps what it sows. Europe’s attitude and sanctions against Mr Putin inevitably brought Putin to the point of saying, ‘If you do this, I will do this.’ I think Europe will go through this winter with serious problems.” The idea being that if the EU becomes more dependent on Turkey, it will stop backing Greece even as Turkey becomes more aggressive.

Erdogan’s view, as expressed in a mostly compliant domestic media, is that Athens is the one behaving aggressively and this is part of a dastardly Greek conspiracy to undermine Turkey’s international standing. An opinion piece titled “The Athenian Trap” posted by the state run Anadolu Agency sets out the argument: It says that, despite Greece recently locking its surface-to-air missile system onto Turkish fighter jets, Athens is trying to frame Turkey as the aggressor in order to drag other countries into a conflict against it. Turkish nationalists point to the growing military ties between Greece and the USA, and the Franco/Greek security pact signed in 2021. Article 2 of their agreement promises assistance, including the use of armed force, if armed aggression takes place against the territory of either country. That was taken to refer to an attack on Greece by Turkey.

Both countries have elections next year with the possibility of a snap vote this autumn. Erdogan, and Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, each have problems but, for the first time in 20 years, Erdogan’s grip on power looks under serious threat. The Turkish economy is in turmoil with inflation hitting 80% this week. In times like these a little scimitar rattling goes down well with the base.

A Turkish invasion of Greek islands cannot be ruled out. The two sides scramble fighter jets on a daily basis to intercept each other and accidents can happen, but it is more likely this is part of an ongoing campaign by Ankara to lay claim to large areas of the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean, particularly the parts where gas and oil fields have been found. Most of them lie inside the exclusive economic cone (EEZ) of Greece. According to international law, a country’s EEZ stretches for two hundred miles from its coastline. The distance is split if another countries coast is within 200 miles. Because many of the Greek Aegean islands are close to Turkey it means that sometimes the Greeks and Turks share just two miles of EEZ but, looking westwards, Greece has almost all of the Aegean.

Both navies regularly confront each other in these waters and last year the situation was so volatile that France sent its aircraft carrier to shadow Turkish vessels in support of Greece. When Foreign Minister Dendias made his defiant remarks (above) he was alongside his French counterpart, Catherine Colonna, who stressed that France “has always stood and will continue standing on Greece’s side. This week the EU responded to a letter from the Greek foreign ministry complaining about Erdogan’s bellicose language by agreeing he was using “hostile language”. Letters were also sent to NATO and the UN.

Neither leader can be seen to back down, especially ahead of elections. What happens next depends mostly on how far Erdogan wants to push things. There are numerous ways to turn the heat up, for example by amplifying complaints about discrimination from the 100,000 strong Greek Turkish community in Western Thrace, or giving Greece a deadline to withdraw a certain calibre of weapon from an island.

A Turkish opposition joke about Erdogan’s diplomatic skills suggests that, if he’d been president during World War II, Turkey would be fighting the Germans, British, and Russians simultaneously. Another quote from him this week does little to lighten the dark humour: “When the end of patience comes, the end of patience is salvation. I believe that Greece also knows this. When the time comes, then the necessary things will be done”.

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