Africa’s ballooning population means the crisis in Ceuta is a taste of things to come

The thousands of migrants who made it out of Morocco and into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta this week wanted to head further north, to the promised land – Europe. The reasons why they made it, and why they tried, all lie to the south – Africa.

The immediate cause was the furious diplomatic row between Morocco and Spain over Madrid’s decision late last month to allow the leader of the Polisario Front (PF) to come to Spain for treatment after he contracted COVID-19. The PF has been fighting the Moroccan army in the disputed territory of Western Sahara for decades. After learning of the arrival of Brahim Ghali, 71, Rabat warned of “consequences” – we have probably just seen the first of them. There is video footage of Moroccan guards opening the border fence to allow migrants through.

The Moroccan view is that Spain has betrayed them. Senior politicians have spoken of being stabbed in the back despite supporting Madrid on the issue of Catalonian independence and cooperating on intelligence and counter terrorism. There is talk of Spain being manipulated by the Algerian military. The PF leadership mostly live in Algeria and relations between the two countries are poor – they fought a short border war. The Moroccan government has accused Spain of allowing Ghali to fly in using a fake passport and identity provided by Algeria, a charge backed up by some Spanish newspapers. These were red lines, and the Spanish may have underestimated what the reaction would be.  

The Western Sahara issue briefly made the headlines last December when, in one of the last acts of the Trump presidency, the US recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over the whole area. The territory is about the size of the UK and 80 per cent of it is controlled by Morocco, the rest, bordering Algeria and Mauritania, is held by the PF. The 650,000-strong population are known as Saharawis, meaning “desert inhabitants” who speak a dialect of Arabic called Hassaniya.

Western Sahara was formerly a Spanish colony but after brutally suppressing an anti-colonial uprising Madrid abandoned it in 1975 having already conceded parts to Morocco. Saharawi nationalists were hardly about to exchange one colonial overlord for another and proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic with its capital-in-exile in Algeria. Morocco sent thousands of settlers in to take territory and the same year war broke out.

Despite its vastly superior firepower and troop numbers the Moroccan army was continually harassed by the PF. Rabat’s solution was to build a 2,700-kilometre-long sand barrier, mined on both sides, and patrolled by tens of thousands of troops to keep the guerrilla fighters out of the Moroccan-controlled territory. A long-term ceasefire broke down last November after the Front blocked a key trade route between Morocco and Mauritania. Morocco will not give up its claim of sovereignty, especially now that in addition to the phosphates under the sand, and the fishing grounds in the Atlantic, there is the prospect of offshore oil and gas resources. The Sahrawis’ chances of independence look bleak.

The underlying causes of the whole migration crisis are the catastrophic levels of poverty in Africa, and the myriad conflicts scattered around the continent. Many of the migrants this week were Moroccans attempting to escape from a country which cannot provide the jobs required for a growing population. Others were from the Sahel or countries further south.

The conflict involving all five Sahel countries, just below the Sahara, is projecting instability in all directions. There’s a risk one or more could become failed states causing a huge exodus of people. Many would head up into North Africa, destabilising already fragile countries, Morocco among them. This is why there are 6,000 French, and hundreds of British troops fighting there at the invitation of the regional governments. Below the Sahel there is conflict in Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, DRC and several other countries.

Africa’s population is 1.2 billion. By 2050 it is expected to double. Unless the conflicts are resolved, and an extra 1 billion jobs created, it is reasonable to believe that the numbers of people heading north in the hope of a better life will grow. It is also likely that European countries will take an increasingly tough stance on uncontrolled migration.

We are already seeing signs of that, and not just from the Spanish. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s remark that “The lack of border control by Morocco is not a show of disrespect of Spain, but rather for the European Union” was echoed by the European Commission Vice-President, Margaritis Schinas, who said “Nobody can blackmail the European Union”.  Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen said “The EU stands in solidarity with Ceuta and Spain” and Charles Michel, the European Council President, tweeted that “Spain’s borders are the European Union’s borders”. This week’s events are a boost to the resurgent right of centre parties in Spain but even the leader of the far-left More Country party, Inigo Errejon, has accused Morocco of blackmail.

Spain has already sent back thousands of the migrants from Ceuta under an existing deal with Morocco. The situation on their joint border can be calmed for now. But there are a billion reasons why it will return.