All aboard the NATO express

In an astonishing about-turn, Sweden and Finland will decide whether to join NATO in the coming weeks.

According to the Finnish government, a decision about whether to seek NATO membership will be made “within weeks” while Swedish media reports that its Prime Minister is aiming to apply for membership by late June.   

Overturning decades of non-aligned status and neutrality, this shift in position by Sweden and Finland demonstrates how Russia’s war on Ukraine has given the transatlantic defence alliance – whose very existence was being question just two years ago – a renewed sense of purpose. 

As Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General, put it so starkly a few days ago, Europe is facing “the biggest security crisis in a generation”. This new reality raises big questions about what the future of the alliance will look like. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a dramatic shift in mood in both Nordic countries. While the Finns have long cherished their non-aligned status, a recent Finnish survey suggests voters now back NATO membership by a margin of six to one. The threat of Russian troops near to their shared border has given an added impetus to the change in public opinion. 

Magdalena Andersson, Sweden’s Prime Minister, has also acknowledged a dramatic shift in her country’s position: “There is a world before and after February 24. The security landscape has completely changed.”

These two countries, with well-funded armed forces, would be significant additions for NATO. Finland has the largest artillery force in Europe, and its membership would also put NATO soldiers scarcely 100 miles from St Petersburg.

However, Nordic membership is not the only way in which the alliance is changing shape. 

NATO was founded in 1949 to counter the threat posed by the Soviet Union as it sought to expand its power across Europe. A few years ago, its enduring relevance was coming under scrutiny. Then-President Trump repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the “obsolete” treaty – one he viewed as enabling European allies to free-ride on U.S. defense spending. 

In October 2019, Emmanuel Macron memorably declared: “We are currently experiencing the brain death of NATO.” The French President’s reasoning was that European countries could no longer rely on America to defend NATO allies. Ironically, he also declared it was time to question the alliance’s “unarticulated assumption…that the enemy is still Russia.” Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin welcomed his comments, with a spokesman labelling them: “Truthful words – ones that get to the nub of the matter.”

Three years on, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has unified the alliance – which is back to serving its original purpose: protecting European countries from Russia. 

According to Stoltenberg – the former Norwegian Prime Minister whose term has been extended for another year – NATO is now “in the midst of a very fundamental transformation” to help it meet this goal. 

We’ve already seen some changes – like the 40,000 extra troops placed along NATO’s eastern flank to bolster Europe’s defences. But, in a recent interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Stoltenberg said that big plans for the alliance’s longer-term trajectory will be made at the next NATO summit in June. 

Not only Russia, but China too, is set to be high on the agenda.

“China’s reluctance to condemn Russia has big implications for NATO’s future strategising,” says Stoltenberg.

At the Madrid Summit in June, NATO will adopt its new Strategic Concept, a document outlining the alliance’s mission for the coming decade.