An alternative party-mindedness challenges Putin

If you want to understand what is going on in Russia, you have to first admit that full comprehension simply is not possible. Not only do we not have all the facts, but intangibles such as apathy, morale, ethos and character are powerful forces which outsiders cannot properly observe.

Liberal democracy and totalitarian ideologies have more in common than may first appear. A subtle but founding principle of liberal democracies is what Hayek called spontaneous order, which is to say that society develops through human action but not human design. He derived this concept from the Scottish Enlightenment, notably Adam Smith’s description of the hidden hand, which delivers progress through ordinary market and social interactions.

This is not entirely different to the Bolshevik concept of party-mindedness, a phrase coined by Lenin to describe the ability of the Bolsheviks to advance their cause through their mutual adherence to an ideological objective. Culture is what happens when no orders have been issued.

The trouble with party-mindedness, of course, is that unlike the Scottish version, it is insufficiently flexible. Through the enforcement of rigid hierarchies and perverse incentives such as corruption and tyranny, it cannot cope with new realities. Like, for instance, economic change, or a war which has gone wrong. We have our own ideologues here, of course, who suffer a similar inability to accept or adapt to reality. But let us not be diverted.

Corruption and violence

There is a party-mindedness around Vladimir Putin. It is to advance the greatness of Russia by keeping the regime in being. The regime has to stay in being not only to advance its objective, but if it falters, its members may face murder and confiscation from their enemies. An elite class led by the president has grown up which is unbelievably corrupt and violent, as I witnessed myself first-hand in Moscow in the early 2000s. It has plenty of enemies and as nobody questions anything, it cannot stand too much reality.

An alternative party-mindedness

The significance of the short-lived rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin over the weekend is therefore best understood as the emergence of an alternative party-mindedness emerging in the political elite of Russia. The existing leadership has been in power too long and simply cannot compute that the war in Ukraine has been a failure, which it does not know how to extricate itself from. It has left Russia isolated, a client state of China, with its border republics in a state of agitation and its near neighbours, from Finland to India, tilting further towards the American sphere.

Above all, it has left the leadership from the president downwards with diminished authority and, ergo, at personal risk, both in terms of his own safety, and his wealth. Prigozhin has not been seen or heard from in the last 24 hours, although he has officially been offered refuge in Belarus.

The army and apathy

The Russian Armed Forces, which declined the opportunity to confront Wagner Group, knows it is bogged down, incapable of advancing further. There is plenty of blame go round, but as defence minister Sergei Shoigu was filmed visiting troops this morning, the situation suggests that he may have his duties reassigned shortly. The army and the regime’s interests are no longer aligned.

Events such as these are best viewed via an intellectual satellite. Like a satellite operator, you can use particular lenses to zoom in on details. But a satellite only passes over twice a day and cannot pick up smell or culture. You must accept the limits of your knowledge, even as you stare at the data.

Financial markets, which have a capacity to self-organise, are delivering their own spontaneous verdict and the ruble is currently trading at its lowest since the war began at 84 rubles to the dollar. Last summer, when it was thought that Western sanctions were easily evaded and self-defeating, the ruble peaked at 52 rubles to the dollar. In a zero-sum game, don’t bet against America.

If asked to guess I would say that political upheavals in Russia tend to happen in the autumn, as people generally cannot face another winter which may be worse than the last one. History changes first slowly, then quickly, like the seasons.

The author is chief executive and founder of Boscobel & Partners, an independent communications and political consultancy. 

Write to us with your comments to be considered for publication at letters@reaction.life