Are Macron and Xi cooking up a cunning dish to end the war in Ukraine?

It is impossible to know what to make of reports that Emmanuel Macron of France and China’s supreme leader, Xi Jinping, are working together to evolve an end to the war in Ukraine. 

It may be nothing, or it may be something that ends up as nothing – the worst and most likely outcome for Macron. But it may, on the other hand, be something that leads to a possible resolution of the conflict, which would transform the President from lame duck to strutting French cock. 

As things stand, Nato’s answer to the Russian invasion is the provision of more and more weapons and more and more artillery shells and missiles. The US, Britain and the EU all want a Ukrainian victory and are working towards that end. 

But is victory for Kyiv likely, or even possible? Russia, led by the madman Vladimir Putin, has pursued a disastrous war strategy, made worse by the incompetence and brutality of its military and their allies. But Russia is not about to give in to Ukraine. Putin – who visited the Russian-occupied, eastern territories this week – appears determined to continue the war for as long as it takes, even if that means him growing old, dying and bequeathing it to his successors. To that end, he is being supplied with much-needed weaponry by Iran and North Korea. India and Turkey have also stepped in, crablike, on the side of Moscow. The fighting could go on forever. 

China – more than America, more than Europe – could hold the key. Beijing has been unable to make up its mind on the issue of Ukraine. With its own designs on Taiwan becoming ever more clear, it is sorely tempted to up its supply of arms to Russia. But it is also disdainful of Russia, which it increasingly regards as a source of raw materials rather than an ally, and looks to be unwilling to take steps that it could easily come to regret. 

What to do? Step forward Emmanuel Macron. We all remember the French leader’s humiliation by Putin during the Big Table talks in February last year, just before Russia launched its “special military operation”. Macron looked to be a fool – what the Irish would call an “eejit”. He achieved nothing and was forced to retreat from Moscow as if his was the farce to set against the tragedy of Napoleon in 1812. 

But – and this is the thing – what if he has genuinely made a breakthrough with Xi that suits China’s purpose? What if, in return for Macron hosting peace negotiations in Paris, Xi was able to assert that he, not Washington and not Nato, holds the answer to Volodymyr Zelenskly’s prayer.

We know that the French president spent an hour and a half on the phone with Zelensky after his return from a much derided trip to Beijing, at which he was feted by Xi as if he was a latter-day Marco Polo. We also know that Macron has kept in touch with the Russian leader. Finally, we know that the West is finding it harder and harder – and prohibitively expensive – to come up with the weaponry that Ukraine needs to keep the Russians at bay. 

Negotiations would have to end in compromise. There are no cirumstances, other, perhaps, than one arising from Putin’s assassination and the emergence of a new regime of peaceniks, that would enable Moscow to withdraw its forces from Donetsk and Crimea. Zelensky knows this. Washington knows it. Macron knows it. But if XI can step in and, with Macron, persuade the two sides to accept an armistice, with Russian-occupied territories on one side of a UN-monitored line of control, then perhaps the slaughter could be brought to an end.

It would not be a perfect solution – most obviously for the people of Ukraine, who have had to endure 14 months of unmitigated horror at the hands of a ruthless and pitiless invader. But it would draw a line, literally, on a dispute that was festering for years and will leave scars that will take several generations to heal. 

The question right now is, what would talks mean for Putin, who is currently facing war crimes charges, and what would it mean for the heroic Zelensky, who has promised his people that he will not settle for anything less than total victory? The former TV star may insist that, before entering talks, he be given the tools by the west to force Russia to abandon whole swathes of territory. On that basis, he could claim to be negotiating from strength, not weakness. 

There are no prizes – other than the Nobel Peace Prize – for guessing what it would mean for the tarnished figure of Macron, who on Monday gave himself a hundred days to regain the people’s trust after obliging them to work a little longer for their pensions. The answer is, of course, that it would mean everything. So, everything to play for, then. What the heck! Faites vos jeux.     

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