At last voting is over: now the wait

Conservative party members cast their last votes at 5pm today. In just a few days time, we will know who is set to steer the country through the worst cost-of-living crisis in living memory.

It’s been a long and tortuous five weeks of bitter campaigning between the two contenders Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. Whoever makes it to Downing Street, it seems certain that Conservative MPs and party members will take time to review how they elect future leaders. What’s been particularly galling is that the nastiest of the attacks have been blue-on-blue rather than criticism from the opposition. Sensibly, Sir Keir Starmer has been sitting quietly on the sidelines. 

But we will finally discover the winner of this long summer duel at 12.30pm on Monday. Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, will announce the result in front of MPs and peers at Westminster. 

Then on Tuesday, Boris Johnson is due to make his farewell address outside Downing Street at about 9am before heading to Balmoral in Scotland where will he formally resign to the Queen. In a break from tradition, the Queen will for the first time appoint the new PM not from Buckingham Palace, but from the Highlands. 

The sequence of events means that we will have a new PM in time for the return of the House of Commons next week. Unless the polls – and every commentator in the UK – are wildly wrong, it is Liz Truss who will take her first PMQs on Wednesday. Who will sit alongside her is what everyone wants to know next. 

Kwasi Kwarteng, her staunchest of allies, is widely tipped to be Chancellor, making him responsible for the urgent task of leading an emergency budget. 

This means fellow Truss-backer, Nadhim Zahaawi, is facing demotion, though he is likely to remain on frontbench. 

Out of the former leadership contenders, Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt and Suella Braverman are all likely to land senior jobs – with Braverman, the “anti-woke” warrior, tipped for Home Secretary. Badenoch is said to be tipped for either education or the culture department. Andrea Leadsom may also make a return.

Ultra-Truss loyalist, Thérèse Coffey, is being lined up as Cabinet Office minister while James Cleverly, Truss’s number two in the Foreign Office, and Simon Clarke, chief secretary to the Treasury, and Jacob Rees-Mogg are expected to be given big positions. Rees-Mogg is most likely heading for the business department.

Speculation is rife about a return of former party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith, to the cabinet for first time since 2016. 

Famous last words but it’s probably safe to say that Deputy MP and Sunak-backer Dominic Raab, who has branded Truss’ policies “an electoral suicide note”, will get the boot from the frontbench. 

Likewise, Michael Gove, who described her plans as “a holiday from reality” will be out of a top job – though he has laughed off rumours that he intends to quit politics and go back to newspapers. 

As for Rishi Sunak, you might expect a rival for the top job to be offered a cabinet role. But given the cattiness of this particular contest, that may not be on the cards this time round. In fact, there are persistent rumours that he might quit front-line politics. 

What one can say with more certainty is that, with a recession looming and a dark winter ahead, the new leader will face manifold challenges – challenges which, even by Brexit and Covid standards, make it an unenviable time to hold the keys to Number 10.