Autumn election on the cards

Labour leader Keir Starmer accused the Prime Minister of “squatting in Downing Street for months on end” today after Rishi Sunak gave his clearest indication yet that a general election won’t take place in Britain until at least the Autumn.

“My working assumption is that we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year and, in the meantime, I’ve got lots that I want to get on with,” said Sunak, dampening speculation of a May election as he spoke to reporters in Mansfield.

While hardly a firm answer, it was noteworthy because, before today, the PM refused to be drawn on the timing of the general election. And the timing of today’s announcement was itself tactical: it allowed him to steal the headlines on a day when Starmer was hoping that his New Year speech would dominate the agenda. 

Of course, there’s no guarantee that a later election would be any less bruising for the Tories. 

Though for Sunak’s own legacy, there’s certainly a strong rationale for delaying it. If the election is in October or afterwards, he will have at least made it past the two-year mark in power. Why cut his time in Downing Street any shorter than he needs to? 

And for Tory optimists, a later election gives the party time to turn its fortune around: it would be nonsensical to call an early election when Labour is commanding a lead of around 17 points in the polls. 

On the other hand, there’s nothing to say things won’t get even worse for the government. The longer he waits, the more humiliating a defeat Sunak could eventually endure. By the end of the year, voters may well be even more sick of Conservative rule and even more desperate for a change. 

Speaking of change, how much is Starmer really offering? 

In his speech in Bristol today, the Labour leader set out what he described as “project hope” for “downtrodden” Britain. 

The next election offers the potential for national renewal he claimed – a welcome break from the so-called party of sound finance which crashed the economy and the “so-called party of business which now hates business”. 

While heavy on the criticism of government, Starmer’s speech was a little lighter on the policy that will deliver Labour’s alternative vision for Britain. 

Starmer criticised the Conservatives for bringing taxes to their highest level since the Second World War, for instance, but made no promises to bring in any tax cuts, saying he would focus on economic growth first. 

The Labour leader also stated his purported aim of energising apathetic voters though was later asked by Sky’s Beth Rigby: “Is there a danger voters will see you not as a leader of change but one that is overly cautious and timid?”. 

Citing evidence of this “timid” approach, Rigby accused him of ditching his only radical idea: big money for green investment – exactly the sort of policy that may have warded off some apathy. 

Others insist that Starmer’s green u-turn was sensible. As Maggie Pagano writes in Reaction, even unions pointed to the gaping holes in his energy plan. And, more generally, the dire economic conditions that Labour is set to inherit place constraints on just how bold a vision his party can offer.

Starmer will be hoping that voters see him as pragmatic and will be clinging onto the fact that much of the public was suspicious of what it saw as the overambitious and unrealistic policies promised by Labour at the 2019 general election. 

Even so, without any radical policies, it will be difficult to convince apathetic voters that there is substance to “project hope”. 

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