Kemi Badenoch has been an MP for a shorter time than her rivals for the Conservative leadership and has enjoyed a lower public profile in the contest than any of them until now. Yet she is being called the early front runner in the Conservative leadership context.
She only became an MP in 2017, although none of the other contenders are genuine veterans. They each only have experience of belonging to a party in power. The longest serving of the runners are Priti Patel and Mel Stride, elected in 2010 at the end of the Blair-Brown era.
Badenoch was only in the cabinet for a couple of years and neither of her portfolios – Business, then, and Communities now, in opposition – are in the top tier of appointments. Compare her to James Cleverly, the most experienced of her rivals, who has been home secretary, foreign secretary and Conservative party chairman, as well as education secretary.
If not impressive political experience, Badenoch must have something about her to make her the bookies’ favourite and such an apparent hit with the two electorates which will choose who becomes leader of the opposition: sitting Tory MPs and paid-up party members.
Some of the other contenders may already be wearily familiar to voters. For Badenoch, the race now getting underway is an opportunity to introduce herself more widely. It may be four of five years away but she is still aspiring to be the next prime minister.
The winner won’t be declared until 2 November. It is going to be a drawn out process. Over the next fortnight, Conservative MPs will reduce the six candidates to four. These four will strut their stuff before the party conference at the end of this month. The MPs will then produce a final two-person shortlist for the membership to vote on.
This week, candidates are launching their campaigns, bringing a little light entertainment into the political gloom being spread by the new Labour government. The Conservatives may have just suffered one of their worst general election drubbings but they are now cheerfully embarking on campaign launches in salubrious SW1 locations, complete with whooping admirers, videos, logos, prominent supporters and free hospitality for the press. One colleague, and memorabilia collector, told me enthusiastically that some campaigns are even handing out badges, caps and other “merch”.
There were no frills and frivolity at Badenoch’s business-like campaign launch. She delivered her speech in an off-the-cuff style, backed up by autocue screens. Her unique selling point is that she has left her name out of her slogan.
When she ran to follow Boris Johnson it was “Kemi for Prime Minister”, with a Union Jack dot over the “I”. This time it is plain “Renewal 2030” – a sure fire admission that she thinks the Tories are in for a long haul to get back into government. Win or lose, the next general election must take place sooner, by July 2029.
Her opening words were: “Let’s talk about our future”, as she explained that “the problems of the future cannot be solved by one person… we need to renew the Conservative party so it can solve the problems that will plague the next decade”.
Before turning to the law, banking and politics, Badenoch was awarded a masters degree in computer engineering. She said she had chosen the Institute for Engineering as her launch venue because: “I am an engineer… right now this country desperately needs an engineer. Engineers fix problems”.
She argued that the Conservatives deserved to lose the last election and had to be fixed into the “change” the country needs. She outlined her five principles: personal responsibility, citizenship, equality under the law, the family and truth (“I don’t do spin”.)
Some of “Kemi’s” backers say they are supporting her because she would be the best at the despatch box bashing the Labour government. She boasted that her confrontations with Angela Rayner have already gone viral. But this proudly “combative” and “confrontational” woman, famed for being able to start a fight in an empty room, appeared to have undergone charm school training during the recess. She turned down invitations from media questioners to back leaving the European Convention of Human Rights or to talk tough on woke issues.
A few minutes later, and short walk away, a contrast was soon on offer. “Cleverly for Leader” launched in the Old War Office, now a stellar luxury hotel. James Cleverly, an amiable ex-soldier and Tory loyalist, promoted himself as the most experienced candidate, the best communicator and best campaigner. He does not think his party needs to change much to be re-elected beyond presenting a united front to voters. Almost as if the Tories were still in power, he has specific pledges to build on existing party policies. Spending 3% of GDP on defence, without raising taxes, re-establishing the Rwanda expulsion programmed for migrants. Abolishing stamp duty to inspire confidence in capitalism.
In a revealing snapshot of the current mood of the Conservatives, Badenoch and Cleverly came closest to each other, and almost evoked JD Vance, criticising childcare assistance for encouraging parents to work and leave their children in the care of strangers. Nor did either of them want to engage on the electoral threat to the Conservatives from Nigel Farage and his Reform UK. Presciently, on the day Jeremy Corbyn formed a pact with the four pro-Palestinian MPs, Badenoch said she was “far more worried about the five new MPs elected on the back of sectarian Islamist policies” than she was about Reform UK MPs.
This is a very open leadership race in which there could be a credible path to victory for most of the six contenders. To Cleverly’s disbelief, The Mail on Sunday left him and Mel Stride out of the match-ups they polled last weekend. Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat fared best. The exclusions underline the general expectation that those most closely associated with the last Conservative governments are most likely to be victims of a mood for change.
Two out of Cleverly, Stride and Patel are widely tipped to be cut by MPs before the conference hustings. Cannily, Stride is delaying his launch until he knows he is in the final four. Or not.
There will be a scramble on the right between Robert Jenrick and Badenoch. Scores may be settled. Having started at Westminster as one of Cameron’s chums, Jenrick is a born again anti-woke warrior, already enjoying the active support of Carrie Johnson and hardliners including Sir John Hayes and Danny Kruger of the National Conservatives.
Badenoch is one of the ministers who stuck the knife into Boris Johnson, following the lead set by Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid. She sympathised with but declined to endorse Liz Truss and, after she fell, backed Sunak over Johnson. If the polls are born out, Badenoch will enjoy broader support than Jenrick.
Among One Nation Tories, Cleverly faces a strong challenge from Tugendhat, who is likely to be helped with this faction by his pro-Europeanism. If the final choice is between Badenoch and Tugendhat, the JLP poll had her winning 42% to 39% among members – fascinatingly close to a tie when possible polling error is taken into account.
As a woman of Nigerian descent, Kemi Badenoch is the exceptional candidate in this leadership contest. Badenoch left no-one in doubt of her ambition at her launch. Priti Patel has hardly seemed to take her own run seriously.
Whether or not the Conservatives gamble on making her leader, she is the candidate who will bring the sizzle to this contest.
Write to us with your comments to be considered for publication at letters@reaction.life
