An hour is a long time in modern politics and the social media age. When Philip Hammond stood up to deliver his Budget, expectations were at a historic low and there was trepidation on the Tory benches. Indeed, expectations were so low that, to exceed them, all Hammond had to do was read out his speech and avoid falling over. At the end of an hour on his feet yesterday he had done far better than that.
A confident Hammond performed with some gusto and offered a moderate and sensible package of measures that – so far – have survived contact with the hysterical denizens of Twitter and the economic analysts whose job it is on these occasions to find a hidden nasty that can then be turned into a campaign for a u-turn. So traumatised and depressed are many Tory MPs, about the business of Brexit, the general chaos, the sleaze witch-hunt, Corbyn and the possibility of Britain being taken over by proper Leninists, that Hammond doing quite well is cause for them having a celebration. Relieved Conservative MPs duly rallied, which is an indication that they have started to realise how serious their situation is.
Hammond also, finally, seems to have realised what a mess he had got himself into, with little support left. Even cabinet ministers who share his concerns about Brexit were in despair about how difficult he had become to work with. Yes, before the general election he was very badly treated by Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, the tough-talking former chiefs of staff who controlled May to an extent that is chilling, obscuring her weaknesses until the election made it obvious to every voter in the land. But that’s no excuse for moping about months later. It’s a tough old world. Get on with it or go away. A dismal Hammond took the capital, the sympathy, he accrued pre-election and since June has squandered it in ways that are just baffling. This left him facing the sack. The message seems to have got through.
Established politicians rarely really change their habits and ways of working. Greatly to his credit, Hammond has done this in rapid order and pepped up the government at a difficult moment in the Brexit process. Good for him. His colleagues will be praying it lasts.
This is not to say that the Budget was brilliant. The housing stuff is inadequate and there is still a need for a much bigger and coordinated effort to provide homes for first time buyers and key workers. A clever man I know has – I think – come up with an answer. More of this soon…
What are the other implications of Hammond’s rebirth?
May and Hammond’s working relationship has been beyond dire. If the recent improvement can be maintained that will strengthen May’s position somewhat, by changing the narrative of imminent government collapse.
The government seems to have done something that went okay. This is major progress for the Tories since the election, relatively speaking.
A reshuffle need not be quite as dramatic if Hammond stays.
But Brexit is approaching the crunch, sooner than is anticipated with the looming decision on whether the talks move on to trade. May will have to decide, with the assistance of Hammond and the Brexit Secretary David Davis, and the well-positioned Environment Secretary Michael Gove, and a few other key members of the cabinet, how to handle the prospect of talks not advancing, and preparing for no deal if it comes to that. Time is tighter than it seems. I’ll explain more on all that – the backroom machinations and calculations – in my weekly newsletter this week, out tomorrow for paying subscribers. You can sign up here.
