Beirut blast will trigger more turmoil in a stricken country

The enormous explosion which has killed at least 75 and injured nearly 3,000 in Beirut is another terrible blow to a country already at the point of collapse.

The first blast was reported in a fireworks factory in the port area, which appears to have triggered a much bigger explosion which was heard in southern Lebanon close to the Israeli border, and in Cyprus to the west. A warehouse containing old ordnance seized years ago had erupted. According to another report, a store of ammonium nitrate had been set off. Ammonium nitrate is used as agricultural fertilizer, but it is often used as the main charge in car bombs.

At first, many in Beirut suspected a car bomb – there have been more than a dozen assassinations by car bomb in the recent past. In truth, it has been a prime tool for political murder almost since Lebanon became independent in 1943.

This year the country has faced a severe outbreak of Covid-19. The currency was on the point of collapse, the public finances broken – a situation not helped by the influx of more than a million new refugees since the war broke out in Syria. Now well over a third of the population of about 6.8 million is made up from successive waves of refugees – some on the point of destitution.

In the first hours after the explosion emergency services and hospitals were at breaking point. Wounded were turned away from the hospital at the American University in Beirut. Patients had to be moved from downtown hospitals to the outskirts. Some hospitals were threatened by power cuts, which can deprive the city of electricity for hours.

Israel was quick to deny any involvement in the explosion and offered help through third parties in the region. The past few days have seen sporadic clashes along the border with Israel involving Hezbollah, the dominant militia of southern Lebanon. At the same time Hezbollah has elected members of parliament sitting in the coalition government in Beirut.

By nightfall the prime minister Hamad Hassan said he didn’t think a terrorist action caused the blast, but negligent care of volatile materials at the port was suspected, and those responsible would be brought to book.

But the whole political class is under suspicion, for failing in their public duty and stuffing their pockets. For months there have been demonstrations involving thousands against the politicians. One ended in a full blown riot just minutes before the explosions.

Lebanon has been a pretty combustible mix of peoples, creeds, sects and tribal loyalties since it emerged as a nation, wrested from the collapsing Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War. This led to it becoming a League of Nations territory mandated to the French in 1920. In 1943 it was given independence by the Free French Forces. Through the 1950s and 1960s it enjoyed a boom time as the financial and literary centre of much of the Arab world. Beirut was a prime resort, with beaches and casinos , and the prospect of skiing in the mountains in the winter.

The constitution was a delicate balancing act between the main ethno-religious groups, enshrined in the National Pact of 1943. This established that the president should always be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the assembly a Shiite Muslim. Representatives of minorities such as the Druze of the Chouf mountains, and the Greek Orthodox Christians played bit parts in various coalitions and alliances.

The arrangement was easily upset by collateral developments from neighbouring conflicts – such as the wars in and with Israel from independence in 1947 to the October war of 1973. Each brought yet more Palestinian refugees, and this meant interference covertly from Israel and more overtly from Israel’s enemies, principally Syria which came to regard Lebanon as its own backyard.

In 1975 the tensions generated a full-blown civil war between Israel’s Christian clients and their militias and the Muslims backed by Syria, and later Iran. The war lasted 19 years and in those years the car and truck bomb became a major weapon of urban guerilla warfare. On 23 October 1983, truck and car bombs aimed at the multinational peacekeeping force, blew up 58 French paratroopers guarding their embassy, and 241 US Marines at their base in South Beirut. Six civilians died.

This century there have been a string of car bombings and killings between the communities – at the rate of at least one a year since 2005. In that year the powerful and charismatic ex-prime minister Rafik Hariri was killed by a massive car bomb as his motorcade passed the St Georges Hotel on the waterfront. Syria was ordered to cease all military activity in Lebanon, and the Hariri case was investigated by the UN and brought before the International Criminal Court. Four named suspects, close to the Shiite community of Hezbollah and their Syrian patrons, have been tried in their absence.

The verdict is due to be announced this coming Friday, 7 August – yet another trigger point for tension and trouble in Beirut. Hezbollah has said it won’t surrender the named suspects, even if convicted. Assad’s military regime in Damascus is sure to speak with words or deeds, causing further destabilisation in Lebanon and the wider region.

It is going to be hard for the internationals – the EU and the Arab world, as well as the US and Britain with their traditional ties – to ignore the latest twist in the tangled tale of Beirut and Lebanon. If they try, they may find it will cost them dear in the near future.