It never rains but it pours. France has been hit by a series of violent storms in which at least six people have died, among them three first-responders killed when their rescue helicopter crashed near Marseille. Parts of the far south of the country have been inundated for the best part of three weeks, forcing large-scale disruption, including the shutdowns of schools and public transport. Only now is the weather starting to relent.

At the same time, the conceit that France still has a central role to play in sub-Saharan Africa is coming under renewed strain. President Macron led a tribute yesterday in Les Invalides in Paris to 13 French soldiers killed in a collision last week between two military helicopters in Mali, where they were part of Operation Barkhane, the forgotten war against jihadists in an area larger than Europe, stretching from Mauritania to Chad. Describing the dead as “heroes,” Macron was obliged to justify France’s continued military presence in its former West African empire against criticism from the Left that there is no point to foreign wars and no indication, in any case, that they have succeeded in bringing peace to the region.

As if this was not enough, a combination of the trade unions and the gilets-jaunes are set to initiate a series of protests across France on Thursday aimed at forcing Macron to abandon his promise to reform public sector working practises and to revoke plans to streamline the country’s ruinously generous pension provisions.

The protests, centred on a nationwide strike by rail workers, could last for several days, or even longer, and threaten to bring France to a standstill. Last year, the 150,000 employees of the state-owned railway network SNCF, known as cheminots, were stymied by the President, who stood up to their demand that they should retain jobs for life and the right to retirement on full pension in their 50s.

Since then, the cheminots’ unions, led by the powerful CGT, have been plotting their revenge. Taking advantage of the populist gilet-jaunes revolt, which last winter paralysed the country, almost breaking the spirit of the police and gendarmerie, the CGT has vowed an uprising like nothing seen since the événements of 1968. Whether they will succeed remains unclear. Not everyone in France supports the revolt, which has the backing of both the Far Right and extreme Left, but Macron is taking no chances. Through his prime minister Edouard Philippe, he has hinted at a more graduated programme of reform, phased in over a period of several years. Beyond that, however, he looks set to dig in his heels.

The police, following a period of rest and recuperation, are to be mobilised at full strength. All leave has been cancelled. The interior minister Christophe Castaner is resolved on a policy of firm but fair, not seeking to provoke the demonstrators but warning of zero tolerance should the protests get out of hand.

Last winter, Paris was placed under siege every Saturday by the gilets-jaunes, made up, for the most part, of disgruntled provincials resentful of the economic stagnation that has overtaken France in recent years. The bigger problem was the accompanying contingents of “ultras,” bent on revolution, who have shown themselves ready to assault the police, burn cars, loot shops and destroy any symbols of “imperialist” France that come their way, even the iconic Arc de Triomphe and the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior.

Macron knows that he cannot afford to lose the upcoming confrontation. A sequence of presidents – Chirac, Sarkozy and Hollande – failed to impose reform on France, whose trade unions are determined to defend gains made in the post-war era, when the economy was strong and successive governments were content to repay citizens not only for productivity gains but for the privations endured during the Second World war and the occupation.

The war ended in 1945. France’s economy has been stuck on, at best, nominal growth for the last ten years. Some parts of industry have moved ahead. There are many French companies that are world leaders. But the economy as a whole has been in a rut for almost as long as most people can remember.

The public sector, in particular, remains bloated, not so much in numbers (though that is certainly an issue) as in its sense of entitlement. Everyone employed by the state, whether nationally, regionally or for their local department or commune, expects to be cosseted throughout their career and beyond. They demand full healthcare, short hours, freedom from dismissal and retirement on full pension before they reach 60. While the official retirement age has been set at 62 since 2010, “special” arrangements mean that 57-and-a-half is the median age for public sector workers, with train drivers and others in “arduous” jobs giving up as early as 52.

It could be that Thursday will turn out to be a damp squib, gone and forgotten within 48 hours. Alternatively, it could develop into a war of attrition that continues throughout the winter. Macron will want no repeat of the Siege of Paris. Nor can he readily accept a prolonged railway stoppage. But with both sides digging in, anything is possible.

The return of the bodies of the 13 soldiers killed in Mali has meanwhile turned the spotlight on the long war in the Sahel in which France, on its own, has taken on the role of democracy’s defender against a determined effort by various Islamist alliances to create a sub-Saharan caliphate. Were the jihadis to succeed, there is little doubt that the struggle would move north, into the Maghreb and, eventually, as far as the Mediterranean, with profound implications for Europe.

This week’s Nato summit in London may well turn on President Donald Trump’s repeated charge that Europe is not paying nearly enough to secure its own defence, leaving the brunt of the burden to be borne by the US. If so, expect Emmanuel Macron to point out forcibly that his country has been soldiering on in Africa, with neither help nor recognition, since August 2014.

At least the weather looks like taking a turn for the better – for now. The storms that have hit the Var region and western Provence have been elemental in their fury. And there is no question that Macron and his government will be blamed for not dealing properly with the disaster, which in addition to claiming lives has swept away bridges, brought down power lines, polluted clean water supplies and left homes and businesses waist-deep in filth.

As he embarks on the second half of his troubled five year-mandate, with a second term far from assured, the President would not be human if he didn’t ask himself every day whatever possessed him to believe that he could take on France and win.