Betraying Leeds on levelling up and favouring Manchester won’t end well for Johnson
Oh dear. Boris Johnson has promised to “level up”, but in doing so, he clearly means Manchester-only. The rest of the North can remain in the second or third division.
This is a politically dangerous move by the Prime Minister, to scrap the HS2 link to Leeds. For years we’ve been treated to the vision of the high speed, eye-wateringly expensive service from London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, as a letter ‘Y’. Now, under the plan being heavily trailed and set to be announced later this week, that right arm is going. Instead, Johnson will call upon all his powers of persuasion to convince Yorkshire that improved local and cross-regional railways will compensate for the loss of the speedier, north-south London connection. Good luck with that.
What he is effectively saying to the folks east of the Pennines is that they’re not deemed good enough, that Lancashire matters more, that Manchester is more vital than Leeds. That’s how they will see it, whatever he maintains. Manchester gets to level up and they don’t.
That cuts deep, where resentment simmers at Manchester’s self-promotion, at seeing itself as the country’s Second City in all but name. Compared with Leeds, it’s got the better football, musical heritage, party conference venue and ear of politicians. It’s the self-styled capital of the north, with a mayor dubbed by the media “King of the North”. Andy Burnham gets his superfast train, Tracy Brabin (who she?) does not.
Johnson is playing with fire. He still holds great sway across the region for even broaching “levelling up” in the first place. While critics have sniped that he does not know what it entails, that the final bill, if he was to really bring the post-industrial North, Midlands and other parts of the nation up to the same level as London and the South-East, could be in the order of £2trn (the amount Germany spent after unification on the equivalent task of boosting the eastern half so that it bears some resemblance to the west) this cannot be and should not be taken away from him: at least he has raised the imbalance as an issue.
Too many politicians nationally and locally have failed to address the clear elephant in the room, that while one area was powering ahead, the rest was falling behind. Irritation at London’s pre-eminence became ever more pronounced, as everything was about “London this” or “London that.” The North wanted what they were having, and Johnson listened and said he understood. He spoke their language back to them, probably as the result of focus groups.
For that, they are immensely grateful. His concern, when others have voiced none, may deliver him a second term. Doubtless, when the time comes, he will be able to point to all manner of initiatives that have occurred on his watch. No matter that some of them may count as trivial in the overall scale of things; he is trying, he is on their side. It is hard to imagine, too, how Labour will tackle this key Tory plank – if they attack Johnson’s levelling up are they against the notion of levelling up, of tens of millions having better lives and prospects (many of whom just happened to be their former voters)? He has stolen their clothes.
The problem for Johnson is that the task is gigantic and the public coffers, as Rishi Sunak is constantly reminding us, do not extend that far. Ideally, Johnson ought to have scrapped HS2 completely. By the time he became Prime Minister, work was already advanced on the first, London-Birmingham, leg. Besides, in the Johnsonian mind, it was an iconic project, of the sort he craves. Johnson loves his classical history. He’s a Roman emperor, here today, gone tomorrow, reliant-upon-the-electorate leader. And emperors leave legacies.
He wants to put down markers, to be seen to have made a difference. HS2, conceived under another administration, is his to build and will be a lasting symbol of his reign. The fact it ticks the “green” boxes of driving more people away from cars, adds to the appeal.
The difficulty is that the cost of the entire HS2 scheme is too prohibitive, so something must give, and it’s not all (and he won’t countenance that) it’s Leeds. That may make sense to the number-crunchers and planners in Whitehall; it’s a red line through one half of the ‘Y’ and is easily drawn. Don’t worry Prime Minister, their existing network will be refurbished and made quicker so they should not mind.
That takes no account of the emotion and symbolism wrapped up in the decision. It also misses the point: if true levelling up is to be achieved, Yorkshire desires – and deserves – whatever Manchester is getting as well as better local services.
Levelling up can’t be one or the other, and this is where Johnson and his advisors are committing a huge error. Levelling up applies to all, that’s how it was sold; it can’t be selective.
The policy may have delivered Johnson an emphatic election triumph and may yield him a second but it’s also turning into a nightmare. As someone who knows his history, he should also be aware that the east-west, Pennine rivalry once resulted in wars, bloodshed that was only resolved by the two unifying.
The Wars of the Roses led to the ascendancy of the Tudors and to the English Renaissance. According to the historian John Guy: “England was economically healthier, more expansive, and more optimistic under the Tudors” than at any time since the Roman occupation. That surely should resonate loudly with Johnson.