Biden and the Democrats will give Trump a run for his money in November

It was the day when social distancing became meaningful in the United States. Or, at least, that’s how it probably felt to Bernie Sanders as he watched a huge portion of the electorate shuffle away from his wheezing campaign and enthusiastically rub Uncle Joe’s No-Malarky Medicinal Gel into their hands.

This was “Superish” Tuesday, when enough votes were up for grabs that the result of last week’s election could be validated in a meaningful way by voters across Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, Idaho, and Washington.

Not that the validation was strictly necessary. If you were here last week, you’ll know that the contest was already called, even if a few stateside pundits have spent the past few days trying to pretend there was still drama to be had. Bill de Blasio, the New York Mayor, divided his time between coordinating the city’s response to the coronavirus and acting as a Sanders surrogate, warning anybody who would listen that Bernie could strike back.

The Mayor was about as convincing as certain subscription sports channels that try to convince you to tune in to watch your favourite team, despite their going 8-0 down in the first leg, with the return match played in front of an empty stadium.

The maths simply looked dire for Sanders; so dire, in fact, that even “Mr Math” himself, Andrew Yang, jumped ship and endorsed Biden before the last result came in. The vote in Mississippi was almost embarrassing – such that, at the time of writing, Sanders is struggling to maintain viability. If he can’t breach 15%, he will carry none of the 36 delegates from the state.

Missouri was almost as bad, though his 34% assures him some delegates. Michigan was closer but, really, not close enough to make it a doubt, with Biden carrying a double-digit lead and a share of the vote well north of 50%. With Biden also carrying Idaho and the two candidates tied in Washington (though with only 10% of precincts in), it means that Sanders only prize from the evening is the small state of North Dakota.

The fact is that Joe Biden had already become The Only Reasonable Choice™ and has spent the last week shaking hands/bumping elbows with former Democratic candidates eager to endorse him. What exactly did people think would happen once Michael Bloomberg’s 15% swung behind him? Even the other progressive candidate, Elizabeth Warren, cannily didn’t endorse Sanders (seeking a post in a Biden cabinet, perhaps?) and a good portion of her supporters will have slipped back into the moderate lane.

It also doesn’t help Sanders that America in recent days has become a nation on something of a war footing. Biden represents stability in a time of crisis, whereas Sanders continues to represent a bet that America is not yet ready to make.

So much so, in fact, that, if this were normal politics, a concession would come soon. It might also be best if Sanders did just that. Last night, both candidates cancelled their rallies in the face of the virus’s spread and the days and weeks ahead aren’t going to get better, and certainly not for a 78-year-old with recent health problems.

The DNC announced on Tuesday that the next debate will take place without an audience. Sensible, undoubtedly, but also perhaps a hint to the candidate with usually the loudest supporters in the hall.

The outcome, surely then, is that Donald Trump won’t get to pick his opponent ahead of the November election and US politics can return to the kind of twisted normalcy we witnessed throughout the latter part of 2019. The Republicans have already fired up their data operation and, predictably, the right-wing commentary about Biden’s unfitness for office has started. This is an odd fight to make, given the same might be said of a President with four years of dental malapropisms and loose-fitting thoughts.

Team Trump will also try to ensure that Hunter Biden dominates the narrative, though we can be sure that the Trump children’s business dealings will be used increasingly to balance it out on the other side. And in case we didn’t already know: the race will be deeply polarised.

Recent polling has 41% of Americans believing that Trump is doing a good job in dealing with the coronavirus. Only those blindly partisan could think that works in the President’s favour. The word they like to use when describing liberals is “triggered”. Another word you might use is “motivated” or “determined” or “willing to crawl across broken glass to vote Trump down”. It’s very hard from this vantage point to believe that they won’t do so convincingly if they are given the opportunity.

Betting markets still give Trump the win in November – but it’s tight and probably meaningless this far out. Now that Democrats have a reasonable candidate who can even appeal to stray Republicans, this election is surely theirs to lose. Trump already had an unclear path to victory before coronavirus, the pandemic he now wishes to miracle away with soft words and even softer tax breaks.

Even if you ignore Biden’s strength, the fact of the matter is that there is a crisis unlike any other since, perhaps, the Cuban Missile Crisis lying between Trump and re-election. It’s unreasonable to expect that the president whose populism was defined by his abandonment of science will find any salvation in it now.

Last week it felt like the nomination process was over before it had really begun. This week it feels like the same might be said about the election in November.