With Joe Biden about to enter the White House, US policy on Iran is set to undergo a significant shift.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is no longer the same as in 2013, when Barack Obama’s priority was to withdraw American troops from Iraq and freeze other conflicts in the region, including disputes with Iran. That process ultimately led to the JCPOA nuclear deal, ditched by Donald Trump but which still has the support of countries throughout Europe, despite misgivings from some members of the international community.

Even though the Iranian regime continues to pour resources into Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, its influence in these countries has begun to wane. Internally, the two Iranian uprisings of 2017 and 2019 shook the pillars of the regime and weakened its standing in the region. Severe limits on funding mean the Iranian nuclear program has been severely hampered and is no longer as dangerous as it was at the time of the nuclear deal.