Biden prepares for crunch meeting with Xi
Restoring US-Chinese military dialogue will be a key priority for president Joe Biden when he meets his Chinese counterpart on home soil on Wednesday, as President Xi Jinping embarks on his first trip to the US in six years.
The two leaders – who will have a one-on-one session during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in San Francisco – are expected to discuss multiple topics, including the rocky US-China trade relationship, crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the biggest flashpoint of all, Taiwan.
The tone of the meeting will provide the latest indication of whether competition between the two superpowers is heading towards conflict.
Biden and Xi last spoke exactly one year ago, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia.
Since then, the Chinese spy balloon saga and a string of aggressive military exercises near Taiwan have seen tensions soar further.
On the other hand, a – low expectations – visit made by Anthony Blinken to Beijing back in June went a little further than anticipated in easing tensions. Following his talks with Xi, the US secretary of state was at pains to stress that Washington is “not seeking to economically contain China” – citing the (still rising) trade between the two nations as evidence of just this. “China’s broad economic success is also in our interest”, he declared.
Admittedly, any progress made by Blinken was somewhat undercut just two days later when Biden enraged the Chinese leader by referring to him as a “dictator”.
Even so, Beijing appeared to show some appetite for avoiding escalation with Washington when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer became the latest high-level US official to travel to China last month. “We have 1,000 reasons to improve China-US relations, but not one reason to ruin them,” said Xi, as he met with Schumer at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.
So what does all this mean for the likelihood of progress during tomorrow’s tete-a-tete?
It would almost certainly be naive to expect much progress on the thorniest of topics. Though the mere fact Xi is travelling to the US for the first time in six years suggests he is wanting to resume active engagement on at least some issues.
Perhaps the most important metric of progress tomorrow will be whether or not Biden can persuade his Chinese counterpart to resume high-level military dialogue between the two nations.
China cut off all communications with the US military in August 2021 to protest then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said this week that Washington is determined to see the hotline restored between top defense officials.
These military-to-military communication channels can ensure there are no misunderstandings and help to prevent an inadvertent conflict, especially in contested regions such as the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, where China claims sovereignty.
When Blinken visited Beijing, Xi snubbed his requests to resume military dialogue. It was perhaps the biggest setback of his trip. “We don’t have an agreement on that yet. It’s something we’re going to keep working on,” said the secretary of state.
We’ll soon find out if Biden is any more persuasive.