Biden’s back in town

President Biden will visit King Charles at Windsor Castle on Monday as part of a “mini-state visit” ahead of the 74th NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday.

Biden will also make time for Rishi Sunak on his visit as the White House aims to “further strengthen the close relationship between our nations.” The heads of state have hardly had time to miss each other after Sunak’s visit to Washington last month which concluded in the friendly “Atlantic Declaration” – an “Economic Partnership to ensure that our unique alliance is adapted, reinforced, and reimagined for the challenges of this moment.”

Before this declaration, bilateral relations had been somewhat frosty under Biden with his constant appeals to his authentic Irishness – no part of which included Britishness – and his failure to attend the King’s coronation. However, he did make it to the Queen’s funeral way last year. 

But No 10 insisted that Biden’s visit “reflects the strong relationship between the UK and US, building on a series of bilateral visits and meetings earlier this year”.

After his UK stop-over, Biden will be heading for the NATO summit in Lithuania. In Vilnius, Ukraine will dominate the NATO proceedings although Sweden’s accession plans will also be top of the agenda. With the news that Jens Stoltenberg will stay on for another year – as The Hound predicted – it is still unclear whether Sweden will be allowed to accede into the alliance. 

Turkey and Hungary are the sticks in the mud delaying Sweden’s ratification. (All NATO members have to be in agreement before a country can join.) Burnings of the Koran and an effigy of Erdogan in Stockholm combined with Swedish criticism of Turkey’s human rights record and democratic integrity haven’t pleased the establishment in Ankara which accuses Sweden of harbouring terrorists and allowing blasphemy. Any optimism about a quick accession process for Sweden was dashed when Erdogan claimed victory in the recent Turkish elections. 

After the UK and Vilnius, Biden will head to Helsinki for a US-Nordic leaders summit as Putin and Belarus President Lukashenko continue to destabilise the region. 

Biden’s European sojourn comes as his right-hand woman, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is in Beijing smoothing over Sino-US relations amid a Chinese curb on exports of rare metals. Germanium and gallium are important metals used in semi-conductors and other electronic devices and Yellen has called China’s export restrictions “unfair economic practices”. 

Yellen told the Chinese Premier Li Qiang that the US wanted “healthy competition” rather than a winner-takes-all battle for financial and geopolitical supremacy. Secretary Yellen’s visit is sandwiched between Secretary of State Andrew Blinken’s visit last month (after which Biden called Xi a “dictator”) and climate envoy John Kerry’s upcoming visit aimed at restarting fractious climate negotiations with the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. 

Critics say Yellen’s visit will achieve little. Yet it could be successful when seen as part of a wider diplomatic mission to de-escalate tensions between the two superpowers. In one sense, many will be relieved these visits are happening at all given Biden’s abandonment of strategic ambiguity over Taiwan last year. 

Biden’s quick European tour and his emissaries’ visits to China will no doubt be conducted with an eye looking towards the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September. The theme of the summit will be “One Earth, One Family, One Future”. Unfortunately, one doubts whether any amount of visits will convince some members to live by that motto.