Biden’s pivot to Saudi sweeps Khashoggi affair under the carpet

This time next week President Biden will be in Saudi Arabia meeting the Prince formerly known as Pariah.

Biden and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, also known as MBS, will both be in Riyadh for a summit of Gulf nations. Yes, the very MBS that Biden described as a pariah following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi by a Saudi hit squad in 2018. During his run for the White House, he said he would make the Saudis “pay the price” for killing Khashoggi. On arrival in the Oval Office, he authorised the release of the CIA report which concluded that MBS had ordered the assassination which was carried out in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He then removed some US air defence batteries from Saudi.

But that was then, and this is now – post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Besides, five years can be an aeon in the timeframe of realpolitik. Just ask President Erdogan who welcomed MBS to Ankara last month.

So, with disruption in the oil markets amid an urgent search for alternatives to Russia, who you gonna call? The world’s largest oil exporter is top of the list even if it can probably only squeeze just a little extra from its production facilities. Every little helps.

It’s also helpful that good relations with Riyadh may encourage Saudi to agree another extension to its ceasefire in the war in Yemen and curb its enthusiasm for hedging its bets by growing closer to China. There’s also the longer-term prize of nudging it into better relations with Israel.

Next week Biden will visit Israel and then fly directly from Tel Aviv to Riyadh. It’s a route Israel is more than pleased to see him take. Having made their peace with the UAE, Bahrain, and others, via the Abraham Accords, the Israelis can see the next opening and MBS is clearly leaving the door ajar.

Saudi Arabia has signalled that it is relaxed about the Accords but is not yet ready to follow suit and recognise Israel despite behind the scenes direct contact. King Salman bin ‘Abd Al-‘Aziz is more sceptical about relations with Israel than is his son – but MBS believes Israel is a potential ally. He wants to tap Israel’s financial and technical know-how to help his ambitious Vision 2030 project, and its military prowess as a hedge against potential Iranian aggression.

He knows that most of Saudi’s religious leadership is hostile towards Israel with some arguing that the UAE’s new friendship with the Jewish state is going against the will of Allah and a betrayal of the Prophet Mohammad who fought against Jewish tribes. MBS needs to get at least some of the religious leadership to soften its position. Therefore, the timing of Biden’s visit, and a recent article by Saudi intellectual Dr Khalid bin Muhammad bin Muhammad Al-Yousuf, calling for rapprochement with Israel is probably no coincidence.

The state-owned Al Jazeera newspaper published Dr Khalid’s opinion piece in which he argues that sharia law must consider changes which occur over time, and that in modern times “Israel is a state within the international community, whether we like it or not.” Therefore, he says, the political leader of the Saudi state can judge if establishing diplomatic relations with Israel is a positive move “based on what he believes serves the individual and collective interest.”

Given that newspaper columnists who offend the highest echelons of the Saud family have been suspended (or in Khashoggi’s case murdered) it is likely the column was approved at those highest levels. This doesn’t mean an imminent recognition of Israel. That will probably have to wait for the death of the Saudi king, but it is another sign that what was once unsayable is now up for debate.

There are incremental steps which can be made in the interim. An example is a potential deal to transfer two Red Sea islands from Egyptian to Saudi control. The deal requires Israeli approval because under the 1979 Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt, the islands will not be militarised, and Israeli ships are guaranteed free passage through the Straits of Tiran. The three sides agree, but the deal can’t be formalised due to the lack of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Americans are working on a formula whereby the Saudis agree a deal with Israel without signing a deal with Israel.

But first Biden needs to shake hands with MBS. Not just the Crown Prince of course. He has “cover”. After all, the leaders of the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq will all be there. As he’s said, “I’m not even sure… I guess I will see the King and the crown prince, but that’s not the meeting I’m going to… They’ll be part of a much larger meeting.” Yes Joe. And your meeting with MBS is part of a much bigger picture. Khashoggi’s barely in it.