Today is another hot day in the UK but the summer has been pretty miserly when it comes to sunshine. It’s a timely reminder that sampling data too discretely can indeed lead to conclusions that run counter to the evidence of the real world.

That should certainly be borne in mind when reading headlines today that Joe Biden’s odds have lengthened slightly in the US election. CNN has analysed the Presidential Approval rating and concluded that “Trump’s position has stabilised and perhaps improved a few points”.