So we are all to be friends now: Remainers and Leavers; pensioners and young people; North and South; rich and poor. We are urged by the foreign secretary, in Saint Crispian’s Day mode, to come together to fight for a better Britain.
But he has a second, Crouchback message, too, darker and more terrible. Not to Leave the EU – indeed, not to agree a “clean” Brexit – would be “intolerable” and “undemocratic”. The word “treason” was clearly not far from his lips.
In his latest guise as “healer,” Boris Johnson would have us believe that he, and he alone, can square the referendum circle. The fact that the result would be neither a square nor a circle is evidently of no consequence. At least we would have reshaped our future.
If he is right, the benefits of remaining within the Single Market and the Customs Union are “nothing like as conspicuous or irrefutable” as has been claimed by pro-Europeans.
The trouble is, he is wrong.
It is all very worrying. What has happened to good sense and moderation? And what on Earth is a decent, fair-minded Remainer supposed to do to save his country?
Let me say first that I am distinctly uneasy about talk of a second referendum. Aside from the implications for democracy (no small matter), there is the very real possibility that the result of a replay would either be a repeat of the 2016 poll or else a “triumph” for Remain by a similar wafer-thin margin of victory. The chances of a landslide for one side or the other are remote. And what then? Nothing would change. Neither side would hold the moral high ground. The country would be divided as never before.
We can’t take that risk.
So is that it? Do we have to do what Boris tells us? Are we so far down the road that there is no turning back? Well, not quite. For I believe that Parliament is now duty-bound to wake up and take responsibility for the mess it created by voting for the referendum in the first place.
Believe it or not, the House of Commons elected in June of last year still contains a majority of MPs who favour Remain but, perversely, are committed to Leave. They feel hobbled by the referendum result, obliged to vote not only against their conscience but in the belief that Brexit will be bad for the UK.
Well, I’m afraid I don’t buy it. These few, these unhappy few were elected as representatives of the people, not lickspittles. Of the 250 or so backbench Tories who made it back to Parliament, at least half voted Remain – as did the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the Home Secretary. But with Jacob Rees-Mogg’s heavies holding them in a headlock, they lack the gumption to follow the logic of their position. Not even the fact that they were returned in their constituences more than 12 months after the referendum, armed with fresh information on the realities of Brexit, has convinced them of their obligation to stand up for what they believe. Instead, they say that they are bound by the 2016 result even if it means going to Hell in a hand basket.
The Labour Party is even more suppine. Of its 262 MPs, at least 240 are Remainers. Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may want us out of Europe, but only a small minority of their backbench colleagues agree with them. Add in the 12 Lib Dems and the 35 SNP members and there is, on paper, a clear and overwhelming majority in favour of Remain.
Having said that, let me repeat that we do not need a second referendum. Nor should Parliament feel able to defy the result of the 2016 vote. Rather, the Government should be pressed from all sides to come up with a settlement with which MPs, and the public on both sides of the argument, can live. The Prime Minister should announce in her forthcoming speech on the Brexit end-state that Britain will join Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein in the European Economic Area and remain a member of the Customs Union. The latter move would, at a stroke, solve the problem of the Irish border, which otherwise threatens to become a major stumbling block in the weeks ahead. It would also, of course, put Liam Fox out of a job. But, honestly, would that be such a bad thing?
At this point, the Conservative Party would split, leading to ructions not seen since the Repeal of the Corn Laws. But that is not my problem. My concern is the future of the country. If the price of achieving a “deep and special” relationship with the EU is the possibility of a future government led by Jeremy Corbyn, so be it.
For Leavers, the one fly in the salve I offer would be immigration. EU citizens would retain the right to come and work in the UK. Yet with economic recovery in the rest of Europe outpacing that in the UK, the number of migrant workers heading in our direction is already dropping. Given our near-full employment and the dependence of so much of our economy, as well as the NHS, on skilled labour, are Polish plumbers really the issue anymore?
Britain would leave the European Union, thus fulfilling the central demand of the Leave lobby. We would regain control of agriculture and fisheries and remain outside the single currency. Though the European Court of Justice, with input from Britain, would continue to rule on market regulation and trade, there would be no question of Ever Closer Union, meaning no possibility of Brussels gaining power over direct taxation or foreign and defence policy. We would, by definition, no longer have representation on the European Commission and the Council of Ministers, and would no longer send 73 members to the European Parliament. But we would take our seats on the various EU-EEA joint committees that help shape EU directives and set the terms for trade negotiations with third countries.
Britain’s remaining half dozen EU flags could be sent back to Brussels (apart from those used by the SNP to salute the Union “over the water”) and we could all start queuing up to board the Eurostar clutching our shiney new navy-blue British passports. As an additional sweetener, the UK’s annual contribution to the EU budget would be reduced by around two-thirds, allowing us to give the NHS billions of pounds-worth of additional funding. If you are a Leaver, what’s not to like? How much control do we need before we agree that sufficient sovereignty is back in British hands?
But, if Theresa May and her top team insist instead on taking the Johnson/Mogg line and go for broke – a cliff edge, with trucks backed up for miles on either side of the Channel – the Commons would have the statutory right, across party lines, to say no and to demand that the No Deal option be referred back to the British people. It would be at that point, and that point only, that a general election, not a second referendum, would come into play.
After that, who knows? We would be entering unknown territory and anything could happen – exactly as will be the case if we go for a Johnson-style No Deal Brexit. Time for our MPs to tell Boris to go back and think again.
Or are they all just placemen and cowards?