This weekend Britain is without an authoritative political leader. As Prime Minister David Cameron retains executive control of the government and should a national crisis evolve he has the power to respond. But for all practical purposes political authority has moved on. It is not yet apparent to whom it has moved.
Boris Johnson is currently the most likely person to win the leadership of the Conservative Party and with it the keys to No 10, but it is not yet a done deal. There are many hurdles for him to jump before he can make the walk up Downing Street.
His hero Winston Churchill spent many years in the political wilderness urging preparation for a crisis many refused to acknowledge. Boris is in a different position. He has been a principal architect of the challenges that now face the UK. Even if he does succeed in his lifetime ambition to become Prime Minister it is not yet clear how he goes about forming a government, what authority it will have and what his governing programme will be.
There is a vacuum this weekend in the nation’s foreign policy direction and political purpose. The Leave campaign was split between the Bovers – the potent political alliance that has emerged between Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – and the Faragistas. It is already clear that key policy divisions exist between these vital key parts of the Leave campaign.
The differences principally revolve around access to the EU’s Single Market and the acceptance of a certain level of immigration and economic migration.
Many will think they voted for Leave to stop immigration. Others are clear their aim was to repatriate sovereignty to the UK and restore the country’s status an independent nation. What many people think they voted for and what will actually happen may turn out to be two quite different things.
But it is unlikely that any serious contender for the Conservative Party leadership will outline a domestic programme radically different from the one David Cameron won the General Election on just a year ago, at least to begin with. What the leading contenders for the Conservative Party leadership need to do swiftly is to set out clearly their prospectus for the new relationship they envisage with the European Union.
It seems possible that some form of Associate Membership is achievable. This could involve a mixed agreement with access to the Single Market and some acceptance of economic migration – or labour movement.
This will come as a surprise to many who voted Leave. If this is what emerges and it does fall to Boris to deliver this approach he could well face charges of betrayal from those in his own party, the Faragistas, and the wider Leave vote who thought they had voted for something quite different.
A compromise is most likely what he has in mind, and it could well be the key to his winning the backing of the number of MPs he needs to become leader. But if he does win, that will not be the end of his – and our – problems.
