Boris Johnson dismissed the need for any further Covid curbs at a Downing Street press conference earlier today, insisting we can “ride out this Omicron wave” without shutting down the country once again, writes Caitlin Allen.
But, he added, the weeks ahead are going to be “challenging” and “this is a moment for utmost caution.”
His latest warning comes as the UK reports over 200,000 daily Covid cases for the first time. While the sharp rise is due to a lag in reporting over the New Year period, Professor Chris Whitty said he expects this number to go up again, especially as we start to see the effects of New Year’s parties and the reopening of schools.
However, England’s Chief Medical Officer added that the mortality rate is still low – with 42 Omicron deaths reported yesterday.
What’s more, data emerging from the capital suggests London may already be past the peak of its Omicron wave.
While there are over 3,700 patients with Covid in hospital in London – twice that of a fortnight ago – the rate of hospital admissions is slowing. Before New Year, it was growing by 5 per cent a day; for the past two days it has been 1 to 2 per cent. Education Minister, Nadhim Zahawi, has confirmed that the number of people in intensive care is already coming down, while Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said: “We’re not seeing very large numbers of seriously ill older people, which we were really, really concerned about two or three weeks ago.”
Even the gloomy Neil Ferguson – dubbed “Professor Lockdown” – is optimistic that infection rates in London among the “key 18-50 age group, which has been driving the Omicron epidemic” has plateaued. He predicts a nationwide fall in infections in “a week to three weeks.”
As London was the first region to be hit by Omicron – with as many as one in ten individuals infected before Christmas – the latest figures give an insight into what might emerge across the rest of country in the coming weeks.
Across England, the total number of patients in hospital has now doubled in under a fortnight, reaching 14,000 – about a third of the number during last winter’s peak. Only around 850 patients are currently on ventilators, compared with 4,000 at the end of January last year. According to Johnson, 90% of those occupying intensive care beds haven’t had a booster – although some hospital trusts in England say that those without booster jabs constitute closer to 60% of patients.
What is clear is that the most pressing issue now is the disruption to essential public services caused by staff absences.
Almost one in 10 NHS staff were absent on New Year’s Eve, with 50,000 isolating due to Covid. Pre-pandemic, NHS staff absence during the winter stood at around 5%. In the week to Christmas, it was 8%. Half a dozen NHS trusts across England have already declared critical incidents in which they are “unable to maintain safe staffing levels”.
The North East Ambulance service reports that more than 260 of its 3,270 staff were off work yesterday. The NHS is not the only service to be hit by absences. One in 10 train drivers were estimated to be off work isolating last week, and ministers warn that up to a quarter of teaching staff could face the same fate in the next few weeks. Rising infection rates among workers involved in the manufacturing and transportation of goods will only deepen another national crisis: inflation and the soaring cost of living.
Yet the PM insists he is not looking at cutting the self-isolation period from seven days to five. If key worker shortages reaches crisis point, cabinet ministers have been told to draw up plans to call on the military for support.
