Boris should pause and ask for an extension to get Brexit done
The Prime Minister faces a choice today. He can try to plough ahead with his short timetable for legislative approval of his Brexit deal or he can take a deep breath, ask for a short extension and show that he has listened to parliament’s desire for more time.
There is deep disquiet among MPs about the government allowing only three days of debate. They may, later today, defeat the government’s “programme motion” – throwing the who thing into further chaos. The government will then demand an election, which MPs seem in no mood to grant, because they are terrified of the voters and the epic kicking they have stored up. They can only block an election thanks to the appalling FTPA.
Truly, the Fixed Term Parliament Act is the most wicked and destructive piece of legislation in living memory, because it creates zombie parliaments like this. It was created by the coalition in 2010 when its architects were desperate to get their bums on cabinet seats.
George Osborne, now posing as a journalist, should be reminded of his role in this debacle every day.
Back to today. The uproar about the timetable stretches well beyond the muppets and maniacs in parliament who persist in trying to halt Brexit, the equivalent in a democracy of playing with matches in a firework factory.
On hearing the complaints about excessive speed with this legislation the first instinct of many people – like me – who voted for Brexit will be to say “just get on with it.” The government is right that MPs have already spent more than 500 hours talking about Brexit. The idiotic Letwin amendment on Saturday denied Britain and the EU a crucial step on the way to a finished deal – a meaningful vote would have been a pragmatic expression of the reality that this is the deal and both sides want it done. Instead, MPs chose yet more faffing about. Do they not own televisions or have friends who can tell them what this looks like out there?
So, I understand those that will say today that Boris must try to ram this through by October 31st. The deadline is not arbitrary or of Britain’s choosing. It was set by the EU, which now wants this done.
But the parliamentary numbers are the parliamentary numbers. The government has no majority and has demonstrated under May and Johnson the perils of attempting to act in defiance of this stone cold fact.
Ironically, it does seem there is a majority for the latest deal. It is fragile, however, and it must be sustained throughout a fraught process to turn this into law.
All of this points – when you take the anger and fury out of it – to the need for a short delay of two weeks or a month, so that parliament can be assured it is being given its proper role and respect. There will be wreckers and deluded souls among our MPs who will seek to use a delay to try to impose a second referendum, which would be extremely difficult to legislate for and if it ever happened would lack legitimacy from the start because my side would not accept the result unless we won. We learnt this – not accepting votes unless we win – from the People’s Vote gang.
No, if parliament doesn’t like this deal it should have the courage to revoke and allow an election in which the voters can decide what they think of that.
The calm alternative is for Johnson to say that his deal is sound, but MPs need longer to look at it and seek reassurances and explanation.
The Prime Minister should stand up today – ahead of the Commons shenanigans and say something along the following lines.
“Colleagues. I have said repeatedly that it is time to get Brexit done. And we must do that. Nevertheless, I hear the disquiet in this place. Feelings are running high here and in the country. I have listened to the demand for more time. That being the case, I have spoken to the EU this morning and suggested a short extension to allow more time for debate and ratification here and in the European Parliament. It is time to get Brexit done. But it must be done properly in accordance with our parliamentary traditions. I fought the referendum on the basis of parliamentary sovereignty, and the government I lead must respect this place. Let us proceed, but with a little more time. I will be issuing a further statement later today outlining a revised timetable after further discussions with the EU.”
There is another reason to hit pause and slow down. There is another dimension – Northern Ireland, where a storm looks likely to break among a furious and worried Unionist population that hates some of the provisions in this Brexit deal. The Province can quickly ignite, as it did with the signing of the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1985.
It remains possible that by the day’s end Johnson may – if he is extremely lucky – have scraped through the programme motion. Even then (and the numbers look too difficult at the time of writing) there will be righteous fury from MPs who will be open up the legislation with wrecking amendments.
The sensible course here is for Johnson to be statesmanlike and to be honest with the country and the EU. Calmly create more time.