Boris under pressure to follow Sturgeon with a strict lockdown for the North

Boris Johnson is under pressure tonight to introduce stricter restrictions across the North of England following Nicola Sturgeon’s latest move to close all pubs and restaurants across central Scotland to arrest a surge in new coronavirus cases.

Scotland’s First Minister said the new rules will apply to all licensed premises across the central belt which includes Glasgow and Edinburg and covers 3.4 million people. The restrictions start on Friday and will last until October 25.

Sturgeon’s latest clampdown will put even greater pressure on Johnson to bring in stricter measures across the North West and North East of England because of a rise in local outbreaks and increased hospitalisations.

Her tough line puts the Prime Minister in an invidious position. He is already struggling to justify the 10pm national curfew to his own party as well as many of the North’s mayors who claim the measures are too strict and are playing havoc with their local economies.

At today’s PMQs, Keir Starmer broke with his usual backing of the government’s line by asking Johnson whether there is “a scientific basis for the 10pm rule”. The Prime Minister obfuscated saying: “The basis on which we set out the curtailment of hospitality was the basis on which he accepted it two weeks ago,” Johnson said. “And that is to reduce the spread of the virus. That is our objective.” No scientific basis to provide, then.

Starmer’s question foretold trouble for Johnson, whose government will next week put the 10pm regulation to the vote of the House of Commons for approval. A considerable number – potentially more than 40 – of Tory backbenchers are expected to rebel against the government over the measure. If Labour joins them in voting against it, as Starmer’s question suggested they may do, then the government could face defeat.

Pressure over the curfew is coming from both sides of the political divide. Many Conservatives consider it a gratuitous and unacceptable diminution of civil liberties, while Labour officials are concerned about the impact on unemployment in the hospitality sector.

This morning, the Labour leaders of Leeds and Manchester city councils, as well as the Mayor of Liverpool, wrote to Johnson asking him to scrap the “counter-productive” curfew and for Westminster to allow local police, councils and public health services to come up with their own measures for their areas. The council leaders have made the same request to Starmer, their national party leader, which may explain his uncharacteristic willingness to oppose the measure.

Starmer has often strayed from scoring obvious political points over lockdown measures – even Conservatives have mocked him for enthusiastically supporting the government’s approach – but next week’s vote may be an exception. Defeating Johnson in the Commons over a business-unfriendly policy would heighten tensions in the Conservative party without fracturing the Labour backbenches – a win-win for the Leader of the Opposition.

While an increasing number of his backbenchers call for a reduction in restrictions, Johnson’s scientific advisers and the devolved administration are pulling in the opposite direction. “Alarm bells are rising across Whitehall – these numbers are incredibly concerning,” one source told Politico. Johnson has been briefed that the virus is now increasing at a fast rate among the older population.

The Prime Minister’s closest political allies – including Michael Gove, who argued for tougher regulations two weeks ago – are also particularly sensitive to the threat posed to the Union by the appearance that Edinburgh is handling the health crisis more effectively than Westminster. In Downing Street, the direction of travel is towards defying backbenchers and imposing more restrictions, rather than reducing them.

Johnson is currently considering imposing lockdown-style restrictions on cities across the north of England by next week, with pubs and restaurants facing closure in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle. Shops could also be restricted, with only schools and workplaces remaining open. Rishi Sunak, who has lost the battle within the Cabinet for a soft-touch approach, is said to be preparing a package to support affected cities through the new lockdown-lite.

London may also face heightened regulations. Johnson made a point of including the capital in his list of regions of concern at PMQs: “I wish I could pretend that everything was going to be rosy in the midlands or indeed in London, where alas we are also seeing infections rise,” he told the Commons.

The coming days will see the Prime Minister take on his backbenchers and the Treasury on the questions of civil liberties and economic recovery. It will be a politically perilous endeavour.