Boris’s fightback begins

Boris Johnson urged his Cabinet to “focus exclusively” on their “massive policy agenda” today, as he begins what opponents hope will be a doomed fightback to save his political skin.

In a meeting with his top team, the PM thanked Cabinet ministers for their hard work in helping him survive yesterday’s confidence vote and demanded they come up with ways to cut government costs and save the taxpayer money.

Johnson is thought to be planning a policy blitz in the coming days in a bid to regain the initiative and deflect attention from his leadership woes. The line parroted by the PM and his ministers today is that the party and public should “move on” from the disastrous vote.

This is a fantasy. For one thing, keeping control of the Parliamentary party will be a nightmare. Johnson’s is a Potemkin majority – 80-strong on paper, but hollow. He cannot rely on the votes.

As one Whitehall official told Politico: “What’s it going to be like during PMQs when he has to stand at the dispatch box knowing that 41 per cent of his colleagues want him politically dead?” Many of the rebels who voted against Johnson have been too openly critical to row back. Their continued opposition is now all but guaranteed.

A reshuffle could be on the cards in the coming weeks – or even days – as the PM tries to stamp his authority on the party. According to the Johnson calculus, loyalists are likely to be rewarded and those who offered lukewarm support (like Penny Mordaunt) could be sacked. Wavering MPs promised ministerial jobs to vote for Johnson yesterday will want their pay-off.

The reshuffle will be of the Titanic/deckchair variety unless Johnson can swerve a series of obstacles coming down the track.  

The Tories are set to lose two critical by-elections next month. The latest polling in the red wall seat of Wakefield suggests a Labour rout. And in Tiverton and Honiton, the Lib Dems’ aggressive campaign is on track to overturn the Tories’ 24,000 majority.

Then there’s the privileges committee inquiry into whether the PM misled the House by saying he knew nothing of lockdown-breaking Downing Street parties. If it concludes he did, it could prompt Tory MPs to move against him, even if he isn’t expelled or suspended from the party.

And while current rules mean Johnson is safe from another confidence vote for a year, the 1922 Committee has the power to change the rules if it believes a majority of the party wants another vote sooner. It was the threat of a rule-change to allow a second vote that persuaded Theresa May to resign in 2019.

It all adds up to a miserable few months for the PM.