Here is the Brexit news at 1pm London time.
Good Morning Britain TV host Piers Morgan and leading Remainer Alastair Campbell, the brains behind the “wooferendum” middle class dogs against Brexit march held in London recently, have been shouting at each other about Brexit and the Iraq War on the television this morning. Co-host Susanna Reid, speaking for the nation, told them both, in terms, to shut up. There then followed a short interlude with Brexiteer John Redwood MP claiming that everything is going to be ok.
Meanwhile, the Brexit talks in Brussels appear to be close to collapse. Prime Minister Theresa May is to make a surprise statement to the House of Commons this afternoon explaining everything(*).
The website Politico tweeted yesterday afternoon that a deal had been agreed. They did this just as I sat down in the cinema with my family to watch the Neil Armstrong biopic First Man.
The Politico “BREAKING NEWS” alert left me spending the first few minutes of the film worrying about the temporary, hybrid, customs backstop(s). Happily, as First Man unfolded I got increasingly immersed in the edgy drama. It deals with existential questions, relating to bereavement, loss, human achievement, accident, stress, pressure, and endurance. First Man is a magnificent piece of work and by the end I had quite forgotten about Brexit, until I emerged from the cinema and turned on my phone only to hear that the Politico report was a dud. The eagle had not landed. Far from there being a deal, the officials in Brussels only thought they had a deal, which in British democratic politics is not the same thing as the elected politicians agreeing the deal. Amazing that unelected Eurocrats would miss this crucial distinction…
It looks, more than ever, like no deal unless the Prime Minister has been telephoned overnight by the European Commission to say the EU is caving in on the need to keep the UK in an unlimited customs union, or insisting on part of the UK – Norther Ireland – being divided off from the rest of the UK.
Ruth Davidson MSP, Scottish Tory leader, and David Mundell MSP, Scottish Secretary, have threatened to resign, quite rightly. If London agrees to Northern Ireland getting a separate regime inside the EU single market effectively, then the SNP would demand one too and there would no longer be a Union. The SNP would demand membership of the EU single market, even though its largest trading partner by far is England, because of reasons.
Right on cue, Nicole Sturgeon – struggling on the domestic front after years in power with little to show for it – is in London to make another speech about Brexit. Do not expect it to cover the awkward reality that in the Brexit talks the EU has stressed in relation to Northern Ireland the logic that border and regulatory checks must apply. In this way, an independent Scotland in the EU would have to put up new barriers with its, by far, largest market, that is England, to satisfy the EU. Brilliant!
Meanwhile – in Germany, where there is according to Europhiles “no crisis” – the mainstream parties and allies of struggling Chancellor Merkel took a pasting in the Bavarian elections on Sunday. The centre-right CSU lost its overall majority and on 37.2% recorded its worst vote share since 1954. The moderate centre-left SPD sunk to 9.7% and sits at derisory Liberal Democrat levels. The right-wing, anti-migration AfD party scored 10.2% and will take seats in the regional parliament for the first time. The Greens had a terrific evening and almost doubled their vote share to 17.5%.
German politics is fragmenting, with the mainstream under intense pressure. The country that is supposed to lead the EU, as its largest economy, is entering a period of increased introspection at precisely the wrong moment, leaving the EU’s leadership role to the (at home) deeply unpopular Emmanuel Macron who wants Britain punished on Brexit, while also wanting ever closer defence and security ties with the UK. It’s a funny old world.
But do not worry. Everything else is completely fine in the EU, apart from the next phase of the eurozone crisis being round the corner thanks to the populist Italian government. In Spain they’ve landed up with a crazed left-wing government. And the Visegrad Four are revolting. But apart from that the EU is in good shape, and it’s silly old Britain that’s irredeemably hopeless and daft to try to leave.
I’ll be back with another bulletin later today, or I won’t, subject to events and reader appetite.
(*) Warning, not everything will be explained.
