Even by the standards of Brexit Britain the last few days have involved much sound, fury and hyperventilation in Parliament and the media, but as we move towards the Christmas and New Year holiday what do we know and where do things stand?
The facts are essentially these:
Thirty months on from the referendum the United Kingdom remains on track to leave the European Union in March 2019, having had a referendum and triggered Article 50 in processes approved by Parliament.
Mrs May is still the Prime Minister, despite persistent attempts to remove her.
There is a Withdrawal Agreement settled between the government and the European Union, some details of which in the judgement of the Prime Minister, need further negotiation and which she will bring to the House of Commons for MPs to vote on in mid-January 2019.
As far as opinion polling can be relied upon it indicates the public sentiment remains, just, in favour of the United Kingdom ending its membership of the European Union.
Based on hearsay, gossip and speculation, conventional Westminster wisdom agrees Mrs May cannot persuade enough MPs to support her in the Commons to win approval for the Agreement she has negotiated.
Having previously ruled out all other options Mrs May has let it be known that the Government will oversee MPs holding a series of votes on a way forward, something which assiduous readers of Reaction will note they read here first. I would have preferred this had happened this week but that was not to be.
This then is where things stand in the week before Christmas 2018.
Brexit is, and always was, about more than just business and trade deals. If business had been listened to then Brexit would not be happening. There is no question that bigger business is overwhelmingly against, and small and medium sized businesses have much to be concerned about. Business however is essentially pragmatic. It will adapt. Larger businesses have greater capacity so they will find it easier to adapt, if inconvenient to do so. SMEs, being smaller, will find this less easy and proportionately much more expensive – as will charities and other institutions and organisations affected. There is a curiously blasé attitude to the challenges these smaller organisations face among some politicians and journalists.
This though is only the beginning. Once we have sorted out how we are leaving the EU, and at this point it would be a brave person who predicted with any confidence which path we will follow, then there is the issue of negotiating the future relationship. That will take a further two or even three years. Things will become more heated before they calm down.
Brexit is a cultural and sociological expression of a desire for political change. It is an educational and economic expression of national will and we need a better understanding of these issues. In unleashing this David Cameron had no idea what he was doing but in doing it he released a huge amount of social and political pressure from the national system without triggering the sort of civil disorder we have recently seen on the streets of France. Although Westminster is currently completely bogged down in the minutiae of Brexit the more interesting thing is what comes next. The politician who brings some insight and wisdom to this is the one who will lead their party to political success in the years ahead.
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.