Brexit horror. UK migration falls. To what it was in 2014
One of the bonuses of the publication of the latest figures on migration to the UK showing a sharp fall is that it has annoyed that stickler for spreadsheets Jonathan Portes. With his calculator at the ready, the ultra-Remain academic Portes can always be relied upon to present Brexit in a poor light and mass migration as an unalloyed joy.
Sure enough, Portes was first out of the blocks when today’s figures showed a fall of more than 100,000 in net migration to the UK, down to 240,000, according to the ONS. That is still a large figure equivalent to half of Glasgow, or 240,000 statisticians, or 120,000 statisticians working double time. Britain is a less-appealing place for migrants, was the general gist of the complaint this time. We are all poorer and going to die. Others piled in, with the usual Brexit has shamed Britain critique, asking why can’t we go back to a time when we were more tolerant, and so on.
But hold on. While it is a big fall in one year, and the UK will need to continue to attract talented and aspirational people, it brings the number back to just below where it was in 2013-14, when it was 260,000. In the year before that in 2012-2013 it sat at 182,000. So, in the wake of the glorious Olympics of London 2012, with a spirit of openness in the air and global Britain in fashion, it was much lower than now. Even the rise the following year only took it to roughly the same level as it is now, which is supposed to be a national disaster.
It is impossible to say definitively, but if previous polling is any guide, most voters will regard a fall of more than 100,000 as good news.
Still the attitude of such voters is misunderstood by advocates of there being as much net migration as possible (500k a year? a million?) as vile racism. Of course there are some voters motivated by troubling views, but most across the spectrum are reasonable. With the country under pressure on housing for the young and social services, can’t we keep migration down to a more manageable level? Voters have been telling politicians this for more than a decade now. It was a major factor in Brexit.
The standard London response is that most of those opposed live in areas of low immigration, which is a variation on the “stupid Brexiteer” argument, as though voters in low immigration areas lack televisions or radios or the power to think, or all never visit London and notice how much more crowded and stress-filled it has become in recent years. Perhaps – just perhaps – some of them notice the way the debate is conducted, and resent being called racists for holding these views. Attack them and you confirm them in their thinking when all they want is a bit of sense and proportion on numbers and rules.
But… but… look at this spreadsheet, respond the activists who want no limits or hardly any limits. Behold the bounty that flows from open doors.
Is it really so difficult to grasp? It is not just about economics. Brexit wasn’t either. It is about community, shared space, responsibility, obligation, the pace at which people can accept change and yes – regardless of colour or religion, as Britons of all creeds make clear – broad shared concepts of culture and binding identity.
They want immigration but at a more sensible and manageable level. These latest figures are a step in that direction.
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.