Brexit party and Nigel Farage are well-placed to marmalise divided Remainers

What’s that noise? Listen. It’s the sound of… people not talking about Brexit.

After months of intense conflict, with vote after vote in the Commons, endless ERG muppetry, the Speaker going a beetroot colour shouting “order!”, and Theresa May begging the EU for two delays to Brexit, all is calm. Only a handful of politicians – addicted to the attention and driven wild – are still at it on social media. Everyone else is taking a break, and in an attempt to restore body and soul either eating chocolate, walking up hills or drinking their own body weight in wine.

Soon – I regret to say – it will all come roaring back at Westminster. When Parliament returns the Prime Minister will have another go at getting her plan through the Commons, for that is the only way in which the Tories can avoid the horror of what awaits them if the European elections have to take place in the UK.

On Sunday, Andrew Rawnsley in his column for the Observer noted that the Tories are about to be marmalised (best word ever, I use it three or four times a year in print) in these European Parliament elections. This is surely correct. Failing to deliver Brexit is a suboptimal slogan for the Tories. How low can they go? Below 15% seems plausible.

The focus on the Tories does, though, overlook one of the amusing ironies of the Brexit meltdown. Farage can smash the Tories. But he could also do the Remainers real damage too in these elections, by topping the poll.

Why? The Remainers who have done so well of late, with ERG assistance, have not pooled their resources for these elections to maximise the number of seats they can take. There are 73 seats up for grabs. It is incredible, when there was always quite a high risk of delay and a chance these elections would happen, that all that Remain money and strategic firepower has ben caught napping. Change UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and the SNP, will all put up candidates, splitting the Remain vote, which thanks to the voting system will punish Remain. Plus there are pro-EU parts of Labour that will raise their voices, confusing the picture seen by grumpy voters. The combination looks in communication and electoral terms to be a terrible mess.

If any of the anti-Brexit big-wigs have a plan to launch a “Remain ticket” and encourage the parties to form a pact and stand aside, now would be a good time to get it done. Even if they manage to herd those various cats, what’s the offer? Are they pushing revoke? Or are they pushing remain via a referendum? Meanwhile, what’s Labour’s message?

Farage has a very simple message with his Brexit party. He is talking about nothing other than this being a chance to boot the political establishment that failed to deliver Brexit. It is potential cat-nip to millions of depressed Brexiteers who want to bash the Tories and bugger up the Remainers.

In order to do this, Farage is also attempting to smash to bits UKIP, his old party, dismissing it as unsavoury, pro-criminal and nasty. Once the campaign gets going, put your money on Farage, not the slow-witted UKIP high command.

Europhile Polly Toynbee has noticed this problem for Remain and she is concerned. Toynbee dedicated her column in the Guardian this week to criticising divided Remain politicians.

In contrast, Farage’s launch last week in Coventry was a highly impressive and coherent affair. He’s raised a lot of money, which prompts his critics to make all the mistakes they made last time. Farage will not be stopped by revelations about his website or funding.

I’ve been a critic of Farage for years, while pointing out that he is arguably the most successful politician of his era. His pressure on the Tories (he was at four million votes and rising) secured a referendum pledge from David Cameron. We all know the rest.

Can he win the euros? A lot can change in the next few weeks. Farage may veer from his chosen course or make a mistake. Remain big money may have a plan, to be revealed in the next few weeks.

As it is, Farage, Mr Toad of Brexit Hall, is brilliantly placed. He is tough as old boots. He has been at this insurgent politics lark for years. Up against the Tories in disarray, and an array of divided Remainer opponents, he could win.