Burst dam is disastrous for Ukraine’s economy – and possibly its war

By the end of the weekend the level of the flood waters south of the destroyed Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine should begin to drop. We will then have a clearer picture of the effects of the disaster for people living there, on agriculture, the knock-on effects for global food supplies, and on what it means for the Ukrainian military offensive which was beginning to take shape.

Ukraine and Russia each blame the other for the destruction of the dam. There’s a rationale each way, but on balance Russia has more motives.

Kakhovka, built in 1956, was the last of six dams along the Dnipro River and created the largest reservoir in Ukraine. The reservoir fed several important agricultural irrigation systems, freshwater fish farms, the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant, and major canals including the North Crimean Canal which in normal times supplies 85% of Crimea’s water. The latter fact is a reason for Russia not to have blown the dam, but it can be argued that it is outweighed by the motives to flood the south of Ukraine. The river begins in Russia, flows through Belarus and then enters Ukraine. It has always been a major trade route down to the Black Sea, but for the last 15 months has been part of the 800-mile front line between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. Last spring Russian forces attacked from Crimea, crossed the Dnieper, and occupied the city of Kherson which lies about 45 miles downstream from the Kakhovka dam. The Ukrainians counterattacked in November and pushed them back onto the eastern side of the river after which both sides dug in and mined the banks of the Dnieper on the sides they control.

In recent weeks Ukrainian forces have made probing attempts to cross at narrow points on the river south of Kherson. From there it’s only 50 miles down to Crimea. The Russian defensive positions on the eastern bank are on slightly lower ground than the western and so will have been more badly affected although both have been damaged. It’s thought the Russians have already moved to higher ground further back in the Olekshy region. If the Ukrainians had intended a major push there they would have been dealt a blow. The flood waters have widened the river, made it flow faster, and shortened the Russian lines. All this would seriously hamper an advance. They have also lost the road across the top of the dam which could have allowed a line of attack across a paved surface. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to President Zelensky, said the flood waters “create obstacles for the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces”. That was an understatement. 

If the Ukrainians had intended their major advance to be in the south, that will now be put on hold. If the probing which has gone on for the past month was a feint, they still have a problem. The Russians can move some troops to the more viable potential crossing points further north including near Zaporizhzhia. A breakthrough there could open the road towards Mariupol and the coast of the Sea of Azov which in turn could cut the Russian forces in two. 

The Kremlin claims Ukraine blew the dam. In war it’s wise not to rule things out too early, but any minor advantage Kyiv might gain, such as washing away some Russian positions, pales against the potential economic and physical hardship the flood waters may continue to cause. Before the war the irrigation network supported a significant part of Ukraine’s industry and about 80% of its fruit and vegetable production. It also feeds the country’s “breadbasket” region which is why wheat and corn prices jumped as news of the dam’s destruction broke. 

Prices stabilised as people realised that production in the combat zones was down anyway, and that extra wheat has been planted elsewhere. Nevertheless, if farmers do not have water for their crops of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflowers this summer, affordable supplies for developing nations are going to be hit. Ukraine and Russia are the two key global providers of such foodstuffs.

The third option for the dam’s collapse is because it was in serious disrepair, the occupying Russian forces had left very few sluice gates open, and water levels were at a 30-year high with water already brimming over the top of the wall when it gave way. So, three potential causes. Occam’s razor makes the possibility of a Ukrainian sabotage unlikely. Their economy, already in tatters, will take another massive hit and redevelopment costs have just soared again. They would have deliberately endangered many lives of their own citizens, and now must divert resources from the war effort to help victims. Years will have to be spent finding the unexploded mines washed away from the riverbanks. All this for minimal gain. 

Whatever the cause, the deluge affects the war. Eventually the Ukrainians will still try to wash away the Russians. 

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