This Sunday, Italians will go to the polls in a referendum on constitution reform that is set to determine the future of Italy. The prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has turned this referendum into a vote on his leadership, while Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) are using it as a chance to solidify their populist appeal. In our debut Reaction Forum, we asked six experts, from journalists to politicians, to give us their thoughts on what we can expect once the results come in.
Massimiliano Salini MEP
The No side will win in the constitutional referendum on December 4th. The main reason is that Matteo Renzi has staked his position as prime minister on it, saying: “If I lose I will resign”. Italians are not happy with the left-wing government and the majority of them will vote for No to signal their discontent.
In addition, Renzi’s constitutional reform is a bad reform. Italy needs to change, but we cannot change for worse. In particular, the proposed constitutional changes would demolish our federal traditions, giving birth to a super-centralist state.
What will happen on the December 5th after Renzi loses? We have solid institutions and the president of our Republic, Sergio Mattarella, will reach the best solution. I hope that the Italian parliament will pass a new, simple and clearer electoral law. Then we must give Italians the chance to vote for a new parliament and a new government. Hence, I hope that in June 2017, Italy will finally have a government elected by the citizens. The last time this happened was 2008, when Silvio Berlusconi won. Since he resigned in 2011 we have had only unelected prime ministers: Mario Monti, Enrico Letta, Matteo Renzi. Now I say: people first!
Massimiliano Salini is an Italian Member of the European Parliament, aligned with the European People’s Party, and member of the EP Committee on Industry, Research, and Energy (ITRE). He is an entrepreneur and served as President of the Province of Cremona. As an MEP, his work targets freedom of enterprise and focuses also on transport, tourism and industry.
Bill Emmott
The aftermath of the constitutional referendum will not be as dramatic as some are making out. If the vote is a narrow No, there will be little change, with Prime Minister Renzi probably staying on until elections in February 2018. If a resounding No, he will quit and be replaced probably by the current culture minister, Dario Franceschini, an able reformer, or the finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan.
The main task of any new government will be to reform the electoral law to make the chance of a populist victory by the Five Star Movement less likely, or at least less damaging, by taking away the current “majority prize” of extra seats granted to the largest party.
Funnily enough, an unexpected Yes might be the most dangerous outcome of all, since then Matteo Renzi might be tempted to call snap elections, under that same electoral law in order to try to get the majority prize for himself. The danger would be that he would lose to Beppe Grillo’s Five Star, one of whose demands is for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro.
Bill Emmott was Editor of The Economist in 1993-2006, is author of “Good Italy, Bad Italy” (2012), and co-author of a documentary about Italy, “Girlfriend in a Coma” (2013).
Deborah Bonetti
I have spoken to many fellow Italians, who both live in the UK or back in Italy, about the upcoming referendum and many have said to me: “I will vote Yes. It’s a change. Even if we don’t necessarily know all the intrinsicacies, it’s the only hope we’ve got to change things”. A lot of my fellow countrymen and women have had enough of the endless bureaucracy that holds our country back and a lot of them seem to be willing, even if they don’t like Renzi, to allow him to try to streamline our fossilized democracy.
Others take this as a chance to oust an unelected and, to some, unpopular prime minister, in the hope of triggering a general election where the populist Five Star Movement would most probably triumph. It is hard to tell which way this will go (there are no polls for the 2 weeks preceding the vote, even pretending those polls would be accurate) but it has certainly galvanized Italians, and Europe and the world are watching.
For many, to whom the technical issues that this referendum seeks to address (the recentralisation of power, the number and salaries of senators, the competence of the powerful regional governments, the abolition of provinces and so much more) seem just too Machiavellian to untangle, it has boiled down to an Italian Brexit vote and a popularity contest for Renzi, who is vigorously backtracking from his promise to leave if he “loses”. It is dangerously simplistic to think that way, but it is the way that many Italians will vote.
And in the end, whatever the verdict, it doesn’t mean much will necessarily change. If Renzi wins, will he manage to implement all the proposed changes? And if he loses, will he really go or will he decide to stay on, for “stability’s sake”, until the next elections in 2018? As the famous quote in The Leopard, by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa, goes: “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change”.
Deborah Bonetti is President of the Foreign Press Association in London and is Chief correspondent for Il Giorno QN (an Italian national daily newspaper). She was formerly a contributor to Il Giornale, La Gazzetta Dello Sport, Corriere.it (the website of Corriere della Sera newspaper) and Radio RTL 102.5 (the Italian national radio FM station).
Daniele Capezzone MP
We are opponents of Renzi, but we are not sectarian enemies: so we had urged him to accept our bold proposals. First: to abolish the Senate (instead of introducing members of the regional councils, the most corrupted and dysfunctional institutions in Italy). Second: to introduce a constitutional tax-cap. Third: to introduce the popular election of the President of the Republic. He said no, no, no. So, his narrative of a massive change is not in keeping with his actions.
But what it is even more disturbing is that Renzi refused to focus on Italy’s real problems: high taxes, high public spending, and the third highest sovereign debt in the world.
Now things are getting worse: a significant part of our banking system is on the verge of a terrible crisis, these banks have a huge portfolio of sovereign debt, and so a crisis will naturally become a “systemic threat”.
After the referendum, whatever the result is, Italy will have to come to terms with reality.
And, having wasted three years talking about constitutional details and electoral laws (Mr Renzi’s mass distraction weapon), the establishment showed a total detachment from reality, becoming the best unaware ally of the populist forces.
Daniele Capezzone is a Member of the Italian Parliament, and one of the founders of the Italian center-right movement Conservatives and Reformists. He has been chairman of the Finance Committee (2013-2015) and of the Industry Committee (2006-2007) at the Italian Chamber of Deputies. He has written five books, and has always been focused on two main points: a firm pro-Atlantic, pro-Nato, pro-West attitude in foreign policy; and a clear free-market approach, giving support to tax-cuts and spending-cuts.
Beatrice Faleri
The Italian constitutional referendum is not Brexit, and Renzi is far from David Cameron’s position. Whereas Cameron took a deliberate decision to hold a referendum, and therefore had to resign when he lost, Renzi had no choice: by law he has to submit a bill that has not been passed by 2/3 of Parliament to popular decision. Framing the issue as a vote of confidence on his government was his decision, and one he is now back peddling on. There is therefore a very likely scenario in which Renzi will lose, but not leave.
If he does resign, the prospect of an Italy governed by the Five Star Movement (M5S) and swiftly taken out of the EU is far from certain. Firstly (and ironically), the Italian constitution specifies that referenda cannot determine international treaties. If the M5S did come into power – which is far from likely given the internal feuds and general chaos – it would have to pass another constitutional reform through both chambers to change that. Secondly, taking Italy out of the Eurozone would cause the collapse of Italy’s banking system, which is already more fragile than Murano glass – and no-one can afford that.
As for the Trump effect, if works both ways. Voters may panic at the prospect of global instability and vote in favour of Renzi out of fear. On the other hand, Trump’s election and Brexit may embolden Eurosceptic and anti-establishment enthusiasts, making Renzi’s defeat more likely.
Ultimately, though, Renzi is too power-hungry, the M5S is too disorganized, and Italy is in too bad of a financial position for the EU to allow it create serious trouble.The cost of Renzi’s defeat will, unsurprisingly, be borne by households, which will face another decade or so of zero or negative growth – but then, aren’t we used to it by now?
Beatrice Faleri is Editor in Chief of Perspectives, the Economics magazine at King’s College London. Her interests lie in labour and migration economic policy, and the economics of political institutions. She has worked as a Research Fellow in Macroeconomics at King’s College London and is a freelance writer on Italian political and economic affairs.
Paolo Gatti
All the polls show that the No side will probably win the Italian constitutional referendum. If that happens, it will demonstrate that the government cannot ignore the voice of the Italian people on important issues, and, hopefully open the path to a season of true reforms made by and for the citizens. If our country pushes back against Renzi’s referendum, we should ask for a government that will establish a new electoral law which guarantees both governability and political representation. This new government should steer the country through these difficult economical and social times, and hold elections close to the natural end of this legislature, in six or twelve months maximum.
In the opposite case, if Yes wins, in my opinion democracy will be weakened and Renzi will quickly ask for new elections. Italian electoral law will probably ensure victory to him or the Five Star Movement.
Italy really needs to change its constitutional framework. We need better reforms than the ones Renzi proposed, giving greater power to citizens and strengthening parliamentary representation. If this is achieved, we should move on to a deep agenda of reform, beginning with a drastic tax cut for enterprises and citizens, and a reform of the civil and criminal justice systems. And, last but not least, we need a revolution in the educational system that is now entirely inadequate in preparing our young generation, not only for the future challenges but also for the ones of present time.
Paolo Gatti is a lawyer and is vice chairman of Regional Council of Abruzzo. In 1999, aged 24, he became the youngest councillor of the City of Teramo. In 2004 he was appointed Municipal Councillor in charge for Education, the Municipal Heritage Maintenance, Public Park, Sports Facilities and Strategic Planning. In the Abruzzo Regional Elections of 2008, he represented the Popolo della Libertà. For five years, he served as a Regional Minister for Labor, Work Policies, Training, Education and Social Policies
