Can Iran turn the tide of Putin’s war?

Anything Biden can do; Putin thinks he can do better. “Biden? In Saudi Arabia you say? Right, I’m off to Iran”.

The White House gave more than a month’s notice for President Biden’s trip, confirmation of President Putin’s visit to Tehran next Tuesday came this week. He’s playing catch up.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is changing equations. Following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, Biden called Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad Bin Salman a pariah. The President has been slowly distancing the US from its 80-year strategic relationship with the Desert Kingdom. This left Riyadh exploring the possibilities of moving closer to Russia and China and considering ways to improve its relationship with Iran.

Biden now sees that he needs Saudi to make up for the short fall in oil following Russia’s invasion, and thus help to reduce prices at the pump. He also wants to keep Riyadh onside to counter Iranian influence. The Americans view Iran as the main source of instability in the region and part of an anti-American bloc which Putin imagines he leads.

So, if Biden goes to Saudi to rebuild bridges, the Russian leader hurries to Tehran shore up the poorly constructed bridges between Moscow and Tehran.

Headlines were made this week after the Americans said Iran would be supplying Russia with “hundreds” of drones for use against Ukraine. The Russians denied it. The Iranians enjoyed leaving the question hanging with Foreign Minister spokesman Nasser Kanaani saying: “Iran’s cooperation with Russia in some sophisticated technologies dates to before the Russia-Ukraine war”.

The American claim was to help round up the anti-Iranian posse during Biden’s trip, but it is plausible. Russia is expending artillery rounds at a faster rate than they can be replenished, and its supply dumps are now being targeted by the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) the US has provided to the Ukrainian forces. The Russians would love to use drones against them, and the Iranians have more experience in drone warfare than they do.

Iran is among the pioneers of “loitering” attack drones and “kamikaze” drones. Iranian forces have used drones extensively in the Syrian war, in Iraq against the Kurds, in Saudi Arabia, and against ships in the Gulf of Oman. Tehran has supplied the weapons to the Houthis in Yemen, who have used them against the Saudis, and sent drones to Hezbollah in Lebanon for use against Israel.

If Russia really is having to rely on Iran to supply it with weapons, then another equation is changing. Russia is supposed to supply weapons to Iran, not the other way round. The Kremlin is aware that it needs the Iranians’ deep knowhow in getting around sanctions, and Moscow’s ability to help Iran financially is curtailed due to its economy being hit by them. This does not mean Russia becomes the junior partner between the two, but it is not as dominant as it was pre-war and if there’s any real leader of the anti-American bloc, it’s China.

Iran needs Russia for trade and military cooperation, and they need each other when it comes to Syria. Both dug President Assad out of the increasingly deep hole he’d got himself into by 2015. They coordinated military activity and Russian air power allowed the Syrian government forces to take back most of the country. Hundreds of Iranian troops are thought to have died supporting Assad’s troops.

Both also opposed Turkey’s war aims in Syria which were to weaken Assad to the extent that the Turkish army could control Syrian territory along the border in order to combat Kurdish forces. After several incursions the Turks and Russians agreed to disagree. Assad was safe, the Turks achieved some of their aims, and the border issues could be sorted out later.

Putin’s visit to Iran next week is ostensibly part of an Astana format meeting – a mechanism for Iran, Russia, Turkey, and various Syrian factions to sort out their differences. Turkey’s President Erdogan is attending but the Syrian factions won’t get a look in – this is about Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

During the last few years, as they pretended to like each other, President Putin watched approvingly as Turkey became increasingly hostile to NATO, and despite being a NATO member even bought its missile defence system from Moscow. Ankara also helped Moscow get round some of the sanctions imposed in the wake of its 2014 invasion of Ukraine.       

However, since this year’s attack, things have changed. Turkey has remembered its long antagonistic history with Russia. It’s slow slide out of NATO appears to have halted. It has repaired its relations with the UAE (no friend of Iran). And, after a decade of hostility towards Israel is once again forging ties with it, much to the fury of Iran.

So, Putin’s anti-American bloc can no longer count on Turkey, and his position of strength viz-a-vis Iran has weakened. For his part, Erdogan is now mulling another incursion into Syria, this time to prevent Assad from controlling the whole country and to weaken Iran’s position there. The Russians are calling on him not to do it.

Iran is already bolstering militia forces it supports in case the Turks move south. It is also moving into bases which the Russians abandoned when they realised they needed the troops there to fight in Ukraine. It’s yet another example of the changing equations caused by Putin’s war of choice this year. He needs Iran’s weapons, and Turkey’s goodwill. He’ll only get one of those, and at a price.