Can Sweden’s ousted PM hang onto power?

The clock is ticking for Sweden’s Prime Minister, Stefan Lofven, who has a couple of days left to decide whether to call a snap election, step down leaving the parliament’s speaker to begin cross-party negotiations to form a new coalition or attempt leading a minority caretaker government.

Lofven has until Monday to make his choice following the vote of no confidence  in his premiership earlier this week over a row about rent controls.

But the former trade unionist and welder, known for his backroom negotiating skills, is said to be attempting to do bargain with the Left Party – which triggered the crisis – and the Liberal Party so that he can stay on as PM in a more stable coalition. According to the latest Novus poll,  38% of Swedes have confidence in Lofven and trust the former welder to continue as leader.

His nearest rival is Ulf Kristersson, head of the centre right Moderate Party, who came close with 35% in the poll. 

It’s the first time in Swedish history that a prime minister has been ousted in such a decisive manner in the Rikstag: the PM lost the no-confidence vote by 181 MPs who voted for the motion to 109 against. There were  51 abstentions.

Lofven’s position was already fragile as the head of the Social Democratic party led a coalition government held together with the Green party. 

The vote was prompted by proposals to abolish rent controls and introduce free-market reforms for new flats but opposed by centre right and far-left parties.

However, even though Lofven’s party supports rent controls, he held the vote to see off the opposition parties, prompting the Left party to withdraw its support for the coalition. 

But the real trigger to the crisis came when Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrat party, called for the vote of no confidence, and was supported by two other centre-right opposition parties as well as the Swedish Communist party. 

If Lofven decides to step down, the Rikstag’s speaker will begin negotiations to form a new government which will be in place until next year’s general election due to take place in September. 

But even if a new government is formed, the Rikstad may still find itself in a deadlock position. Sweden’s political landscape has been relatively evenly split between the centre-left and centre-right parties which won about 40% of the vote each at the last election.

Six political parties dominate the Rikstag in which Lofven’s Social Democrats have 100 seats, the Moderate party has 70 MPs, Sweden Democrat’s  62, the Centre Party with 31, the Left with 28, the Christian Democrats have 22, the Liberals 20 while the Greens have 16 MPs. 

Akesson’s Sweden Democrat party, which is described as far-right and anti-immigrant, has been polling well over the last few months. After distancing itself from its pro-Nazi past, Akesson has gone to great lengths to rehabilitate the party. It was enough for the  the party to win 17.6% of the vote at the 2018 election, making it the country’s third biggest party.

If a general election is called as a result of Löfven’s fall, Swedish pollsters predict the Swedish Democrats – which are now polling at 20% – could gain more seats, putting them in a strong position to take part in a centre-right coalition led by the Moderates.