Can the Democrats really run Biden after this?

The US Democrats are in a state of confusion and high anxiety as concern over President Joe Biden’s cognitive shortcomings prompts the question: can the party really run him at this year’s election?

The President’s mental acuity, or lack thereof, has been a defining issue of his tenure, yet he seems to have mostly muddled through – until now. Last night, that changed.

A 345-page report investigating why Biden had classified government documents relating to US foreign and military policy in the basement of his home found that he “wilfully retained and disclosed” the files. But, the report said he could not be charged on the basis that a jury would be unlikely to find him guilty and instead conclude that he was “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”.

Even more humiliating was the report’s conclusion that Biden couldn’t remember the year his son Beau died (2015), or the years when he was Barack Obama’s Vice-President (2009-2017). 

The report was authored by Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert K. Hur, a Republican appointed to the role by Biden attorney general Merrick Garland. CNN called it a “searing report,” and even the New York Times (sympathetic to Biden) labelled it a “political mess”.

The panic in the White House is palpable. Biden supporters said it was a Republican hit-job. On Thursday evening, Special Assistant to the President Ian Sams pushed back hard saying: “The inappropriate criticisms of the President’s memory are inaccurate, gratuitous, and wrong. We told the Special Counsel this.”

In a rare and impromptu press conference on Thursday night, an angry Biden rejected the aspersions cast on his mental capabilities. “My memory is fine,” he said. Regarding the accusation that he forgot when his son died, Biden said: “How the hell he dare raise that?”

It then went from bad to worse. Responding to a question about the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Biden mixed up Egypt’s Abdul Fattah al-Sisi with the president of Mexico. “I think as you know initially, the president of Mexico, Sisi, did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in.”

Nikki Haley, Trump’s rival in the Republican presidential candidacy, took the opportunity to blast the American gerontocracy as a whole, not just Biden. She said: “Donald Trump confused me for Nancy Pelosi. Joe Biden confused the president of Mexico with the president of Egypt. The first party to retire their 80-year-old candidate will be the party that wins.”

Even though Trump looks to be a shoo-in for the Republican nomination, the Republicans could run Haley should age, infirmity or legal proceedings incapacitate the 77-year-old.

But who would the Democrats run? VP Kamala Harris is profoundly unpopular even among the liberal part of the electorate and California governor Gavin Newsom has little more than his state’s dramatic deterioration on his CV, although he is charismatic. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could also be a contender if the Democrats decide they need a replacement.

But that illustrates the party’s problem. Biden and his tight inner circle are stubborn. They have resisted any calls to stand aside. Until that changes, or unless mortality intervenes, Biden is the candidate.

What happens if he is persuaded that he simply cannot go on with a gruelling campaign, let alone another four years in office? After the primaries season the delegates at the Democratic party Convention, taking place 19-22 August, would be “released” from their obligation to nominate Biden. Then an old-fashioned battle would take place at the Convention, with candidates bidding for the support of delegates.

The winner would then have only eleven weeks until election day to introduce themselves to American voters and persuade them that they have what it takes to stop the likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

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