Can the Saudi-Israel detente be saved?

After a swift trip to Israel earlier today, Rishi Sunak has landed in Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, just as the prospect of an Israeli-Saudi detente has suffered a major setback.

In Tel Aviv, Sunak’s message to his Israeli counterpart was effectively a repeat of that made yesterday by President Biden: one of solidarity – “we will stand with your people” but also a plea to minimise civilian casualties in Gaza. 

Something Benjamin Netanyahu appeared keen to get across was that Hamas’s terror attack was, in part, “an attempt to destroy Israel’s peace moves in the region”. This was a fitting message given that Sunak’s next pit stop on his frenzied tour of the Middle East is Riyadh.

Historically, the relationship between Saudi and Israel is a fraught one. And the current king of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, has been a staunch supporter of Palestine all his life.

But, before October 7, under the rule of MBS, the crown prince, the two former enemies were on the verge of normalising diplomatic relations – a move that would represent a historic breakthrough in Israel’s acceptance within the Arab and Islamic world. “Every day, we get closer,” MBS asserted last month, to what he described as “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War.” 

Events of the last two weeks throw a spanner in the works. 

Following Hamas’s attacks in Israel, the Saudi foreign ministry refused to condemn the terror group outright, though it called for “an immediate halt to the escalation between both sides.”

On October 13, Saudi sources briefed the media that normalisation talks with Israel had been paused, but not abandoned. 

This week, the Saudi foreign ministry’s tone appeared to have hardened slightly, when it condemned Israel for its “failure to cease its attacks against civilians in spite of numerous international appeals.”

It is not in the Saudi national interest to see conflict in Israel and Palestine spill into a wider war. After all, the Crown Prince is intent on reducing regional instability so that nothing jeopardises his “2030 Vision”: an ambitious plan to turn the Kingdom into a travel, leisure, and sporting powerhouse and attract 150 million visitors a year by 2030. 

However, as images of death and destruction in Gaza prompt an outpouring of anger in the Islamic world, MBS will come under increasing pressure to scrap normalisation talks completely. Sunak will likely attempt to persuade the Crown Prince not to abandon the progress he has made with Netanyahu so hastily. 

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