Can Turkey hold NATO to ransom?

Why is President Erdogan dragging his feet on NATO expansion?

The Turkish despot and lukewarm friend of the West has vowed to block Finland and Sweden’s accession bids, saying both countries support terrorism. Sweden, according to Erdogan, is a “hatchery” for terrorist cells.

NATO’s 30 members must unanimously agree that the Nordic states can join the alliance. If Erdogan is serious, it puts the kibosh on what was expected to be a smooth admission.

While the President’s opposition on Friday sounded more like a whinge than a genuine veto threat, his rhetoric this week has hardened. He said today that the two countries needn’t bother sending diplomatic delegations to convince him – his mind is made up. Sweden and Finland’s leaders have committed to making the trip to Turkey anyway.

At least part of Ankara’s foot-dragging will be down to the reasons stated. Erdogan has accused Sweden and Finland of harbouring members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey designates a terrorist group, and followers of Fethullah Gulen, who Erdogan accuses of masterminding a 2016 coup attempt. “Neither of these countries have a clear, open attitude towards terrorist organisation,” he said. “How can we trust them?”

In 2019, both nations slapped an arms embargo on Turkey after its incursion into Syria. Ankara wants them lifted.

This won’t be the whole story.

Tensions with fellow NATO members – including Western support for Syrian Kurds and spats with Greece and France over Mediterranean maritime borders – suggest Erdogan is exerting leverage.

His biggest gripe is with the Biden administration. Erdogan has admitted that his relationship with Biden hasn’t been nearly as warm as with Trump or Obama. He feels he’s been given the diplomatic cold shoulder. Turkey also wants Congress to approve its purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets.

According to Yavuz Baydar, editor-in-chief of Ahval, a Turkish online news site, Erdogan’s domestic woes help explain his actions. “Challenges for Erdogan to survive politically are piling up ahead of elections that must be held by June next year,” he says.

“[He] feels growing political pressure at home due to a massive systemic crisis, topped by a steep economic decline… He needs money, and he feels he needs to straighten out his relations with the White House and – especially – Congress.”

The veto threat could well be designed to send a message to Washington with the hope of gaining some concessions – or at least a phone call.

Will Erdogan really follow through with his threat?

Asli Aydintasbas, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, thinks the move is a gambit. “It is unlikely that Erdogan had one specific policy goal in mind, but he will no doubt be expecting to be cajoled, persuaded, and eventually rewarded for his cooperation, as in the past,” she writes, referring to Turkey’s initial reluctance to allow Lithuania to join NATO in 2019 for similar reasons.

Turkey’s NATO partners will exert their own pressure in return. Expect some haggling, and then a fudge.