Turkey’s democracy is going to be tested. Possibly to its limits.

The Republic’s longest serving leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is up for re-election next year which means that this year he will spend a lot of time trying to ensure he stays in office. Whoever wins, a dramatic change in foreign policy is unlikely, but on the domestic front an Erdogan victory means a continuation of the 20 years he’ll have spent at the top, two decades in which Turkish democracy has taken a battering.

Opposition politicians are also concerned that if defeated, the President may contest the result in a manner similar to that of Donald Trump in the US. There the foundations of American democracy were shaken but were deep enough for the legal system to prevail. Since 2003 Erdogan has been chiselling away at the foundations of Turkey’s democracy.