Can Ursula von der Leyen save the European project?

Ursula von der Leyen, whose five-year term as President of the European Commission begins on November 1, is probably little different than her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker. Is she, aged 60, a little bit more interesting than the little Luxemburger? Probably. Juncker began his five-year tenure promising further progress towards a more integrated Europe. He leaves office as the man who got nothing done on immigration and presided, literally, over the chaotic departure of the EU’s second-richest state.

The first woman to hold the presidency and the first German since Walter Hallstein more than half a century ago – Von der Leyen takes over with the European Project in a state of disarray.

There are many who wish to see root-and-branch democratic reform, resulting in a more accountable Brussels machine and the restoration to the member states of powers that the Commission has acquired, almost casually, over the years in defiance of the concept of subsidiarity – the idea that power is best reposed where it is closest to those whom it affects. Sovereignty is the issue here, with East versus West (and Italy joined with the East) presenting the most obvious line of battle.

But there are also those, led by the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who, with no hint of irony, use their national leverage to press for movement towards a United States of Europe, with “ministers” in Brussels, a single tax regime, an expanded European budget and at least the beginnings of an EU-wide defence capability.

Where does Von der Leyen stand on all of this? Critics like to say of her that she has risen without trace, citing her ill-starred tenure as German defence minister – during which her country’s armed forces continued to rot – as her only significant administrative experience. They will have noted that one of her first moves in charge was to add responsibility for defence and space programmes to the job description of her choice as internal market commissioner, Sylvie Goulard, a former French defence minister, nominated by Macron.

Does this mean that Von der Leyen sees herself as the Joan the Baptist of a European Army? Quite possibly. She certainly said as much in the run-up to her appointment. But if precedent is anything to go by, no such Army will be ready to present arms much before 2050, if then.

In the meantime, much else has to be resolved. There is Brexit, of course. Aware that the intended departure of the UK from EU membership will be followed by a long and no-doubt painful set of negotiations covering its future relationship with the 27, she has rather shrewdly appointed Phil Hogan, from Ireland, as her trade commissioner. Hogan, previously in charge of agriculture, is not only acutely aware of the importance to his own country of a viable long-term deal with the British, he is also something of a table-thumper, ready, we are told, to push hard against Donald Trump if the American President’s ongoing tariff war with China continues to pose a threat to European economic stability.

Just as pressing, there is the never-ending Italian banking crisis, ongoing uncertainty over the euro, the need to maintain a close relationship with the City of London, as Europe’s banker, and the long-standing imbalance in prosperity between North and South and East and West.

Mass immigration bothers everyone, but in particular Italy, Greece, Spain and the Visegrad quartet of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. There seems to be no end in sight. Juncker got nowhere with his proposal that a better policed external border be combined with a general acceptance of the need to absorb those immigrants – many of them Muslims – already here or who turn up in the years ahead. Italy and Greece continue to bear the brunt, with the former in particular feeling abandoned by its partners. Germany feels it did its bit in 2015 when it admitted close to one million immigrants. Like Austria and France, it has since more or less closed its doors, taking in only those who somehow manage to sidestep border security – making asylum and citizenship a prize for enterprise and determination rather than a response to human need.

Poland and Hungary favour a very different approach. As far as Warsaw and Budapest are concerned, the way forward is clear. They don’t want Muslim minorities moving into their territories and are resolved to stem the tide with or without help from Brussels. With this in mind, it was striking that when Von der Leyen turned up in Brussels last week to announce her new team, she tasked the Greek Commissioner, Margaritas Schinas, with responsibility not only for migration, integration and cross-border security, but “the protection of our European way of life”.

Such an emotive choice of words did not sit easily on the Left, and the likelihood is that a cosmetic change will be introduced to the title. But in the former East Bloc there will be some satisfaction that their concerns for a “Christian” Europe have at least been acknowledged.

Immigration is not the only crisis blowing in from the East. The Visegrad four, and others, have long felt sidelined by Brussels, given the least important Commission jobs and treated by the Western member states as if they were still on probation. To address this legitimate concern, the Polish Commissioner, Janusz Wojciechowski, has been handed the key role of agriculture commissioner, presiding over a budget running into the high billions, while Hungary’s László Trócsányi, a former justice minister, known to be close to President Viktor Orbán, is tasked with preparing for further EU enlargement and maintaining good relations with Europe’s near-neighbours, including Turkey and Ukraine, as well as Serbia and other non-EU Balkan states.

This is not to say that Brussels – not only the Commission, but the Council and Parliament – does not wish to bring the East Bloc onside on issues such as free speech, the independence of the judiciary and, generally, respect for the EU acquis. But unless the divide between East and West becomes clearly unbridgeable, Von der Leyen can be expected to speak loudly while carrying a little stick. Belgium’s Didier Reynders, has been asked to devise some means of suspending, or reducing, structural funds running into billions of euros for those member states judged wilfully non-compliant with “the European way of life”. Whether such a high-risk approach will be honoured in the breach rather than the observance is an open question.

Leading the charge on the ever-accelerating digital revolution will be Margrethe Vestager, of Denmark, one of the undoubted success stories of the Juncker years, remembered for imposing multi-billion-euro fines on mega corporations – mostly American – she deemed to have engaged in industrial-scale tax avoidance. Vestager, one of two Spitzenkandaten Von der Leyen beat for the top job, will add digital affairs to her existing competition portfolio, as well as the shared job title of executive vice president, making her one of the most important officials in the whole of the European Union.

Finally, the green elephant in the room. Von der Leyen has asked the Dutchman Frans Timmermans, another of the defeated spitzenkandidaten, also an executive vice president, to draw up the EU’s “Green New Deal”.

No one doubts that the public throughout Europe, from Lisbon to Tallin, has been aroused from its carbon-induced slumber, and there is hardly a single political party of consequence, on the left or the right, that does not accept the urgency of the challenge. But if the new Commission genuinely embraces a radical approach that starts on Day One and leads to a carbon-neutral environment within the next ten years, expect an indignant response from industry and other interest groups across the continent. Everybody wants a clean world. No everyone is ready as yet to make the sacrifices required.

Those who wonder where in all this there is time and space for democratic reforms are unlikely to receive an answer anytime soon. Von der Leyen was born in Brussels and attended the European School. Her father was a top Commission official, who inculcated into his daughter the belief that a United Europe was not only desirable, but inevitable. If the existing system turns out to work to her advantage as she tries to keep Europe on track within an increasingly aggressive world order, it would be naive to expect much that is genuinely transformative.

This week, having left domestic concerns behind her, the new President will be watching anxiously as her team of commissioners face confirmation hearings in Strasbourg, where the Parliament will be keen to show off its growing strength and centrality to the decision-making process. Getting her priorities in line so that she ends up with an agenda supported by all, or most, of the member states as well as by a majority of MEPs is likely to be key to the success or failure of her mandate.