Can US-Philippines deal save Taiwan from China’s clutches?

“From the Halls of Montezuma, to the shores of Tripoli” is the opening to the Hymn of the US Marine Corp. If the “Jarheads” want to rewrite it they can now add the shores of the Luzon Strait to their long geographic list.

This week’s agreement between the Philippines and the US to increase America’s armed presence in the Southeast Asian country is expected to see US forces given access to four more military camps in addition to the five they already use on a non-permanent basis. The new locations have not been officially disclosed but are thought to be Cagayan, Zambales, Palwan and Isabela. By no coincidence last year, the 3^rd Marine Littoral Regiment Marine Corp was on exercise in Cagayan and will be again later this year. And also by no coincidence – Cagayan is in Luzon province which faces Taiwan across the Luzon Strait. Zambales and Palwan meanwhile face the Scarborough Shoal, and the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

The logic behind the new deal for Washington is that it increases its ability to preposition heavy weapons, quickly move forces around the region and monitor Chinese activity. It helps bridge the gap in the arc of allies and friendly nations which stretches from Japan to South Korea, on to Taiwan and then down to Australia. It was telling that US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin arrived in Manila to sign the agreement straight from visiting South Korea to finalise a deal to increase the deployment of fighter jets and bombers there. For its part the Philippines gains what it hopes will be an enhanced deterrent against Chinese incursions into its waters as part of the dispute Beijing has with Manila over ownership of the Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Islands. Some of the artificial islands China has built, and militarised, in the South China Sea are within the Philippines’ 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone.

Both sides see the deal as part of the bigger picture deterring China from gambling on an invasion of Taiwan. Every other country in the region would be affected by an attack on Taiwan but perhaps none so much as the Philippines and Japan as the island sits between them. The Luzon Strait is only 600 miles wide and if China controlled Taiwan, it would be able to dominate the Philippines in a bid to draw it away from the US. Washington heralded the agreement as allowing more rapid support for humanitarian and climate-related disasters, which indeed it does, but the underlying rationale was in the phrase “…and respond to other shared challenges”. Beijing said the deal was the product of America’s “selfish interests”.

The presidency of Rodrigo Duterte (2016-22) strained relations between Washington and Manila as he threatened to tear up the military agreement between the two countries and kick out all visiting US forces. He made overtures to China which was not slow to see the strategic opportunity to weaken US power in the Pacific. His successor Ferdinand “Bongbong” Romualdez Marcos Jr. was in Beijing earlier this month for talks with Xi Jinping and agreed to cooperate in developing gas and oil deposits in the South China Sea. Suggestions that this might signify a continuation of Duterte’s policy are undermined by this week’s military agreement with the US. As a treaty ally the Americans have pledged to come to the assistance of the Philippines in the event of its ships or aircraft coming under attack from China in disputed waters. There are also ongoing discussions between Washington, Manila, and Tokyo about preparing a joint military response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

As part of the new agreement, US and Filipino forces will increase their combined training exercises and further integrate their tactics and interoperability. The Americans will fund an $82 million upgrade of the bases it has access to – a move which benefits both militaries. Lloyd Austin’s visit followed that of Vice President Kamala Harris last November, and her visit followed the Americans’ retreat from Afghanistan. Through the fog of that embarrassment you could see something emerging – concentration. On foreign policy the US would now be concentrating on what it cared most about – Russia and China. We’ve seen the focus in Ukraine. Now we see it again. 

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