Capitol Hill deadlock shows Republican moderates can bite back

Want to know the newest definition of insanity? It’s holding a vote again and again and expecting the results to be any different.  

Or that, at least, is the case on Capitol Hill where on Wednesday Jim Jordan failed yet again in his bid to become Speaker of the House. This happened just days after Steve Scalise dropped out of the race upon failing to win enough votes to become the Speaker of the House, weeks after the former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, failed to be re-elected as Speaker of the House, after being kicked out of the office he inherited after being narrowly elected as Speaker of the House back in January…  

And if that doesn’t sound at all clear, then you’re up to speed with the current situation in Washington. What’s more, you probably know as much as anybody about what happens next.  

Seriously, do you know? Can you at least give me a hint? 

That’s where we are, with nobody knowing what tomorrow will bring. And that’s not merely a statement of the epistemologically obvious, the capricious nature of Fate, and the singular direction of Time’s arrow. We are in unprecedented times. Even the wisest watchers of Washington’s politics haven’t seen anything quite like this before.  

Or, at least, haven’t seen it for all of a few months… 

The current impasse is essentially a continuation of a saga that began with last year’s mid-terms when the Republicans narrowly took the House of Representatives with a majority of just seven. It was a victory that has thus far proved to be a poisoned chalice. Kevin McCarthy attempted to make it work by giving concessions to a group of hardline conservatives collectively known as “The Freedom Caucus”. Individually, they’re fringe players broadly Trumpian in outlook, many fiercely libertarian, deeply suspicious of the federal government, and who envisage a very different form of United States run by a small government at the top and with power devolved to local legislatures. Together, however, they are enough of a bloc to prevent the House majority from passing anything without support from Democrats, which given the polarised nature of politics, is highly unlikely. 

With the fragile truce between McCarthy and the rebels it was only a matter of time before the ultras would stop dangling McCarthy over the proverbial barrel and let him drop. That’s what they did back in September, leaving the legislative side of Congress in a deadlock. 

It means this deadlock was always likely and, for the moment, appears intractable. It would also be ridiculous if part of this weren’t somehow reassuring. For all the talk of the GOP being a party of Trump and no longer having any moderates, there are still enough to hold the line. Jim Jordan as Speaker seems to be that line, which is both “new information” and surprising. Last week, it seemed possible that he might win. The extremists have pretty much held all the cards since January, dominating the media so that relatively minor figures such as Jordan, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar, Matt Gaetz, and (formerly) Marjorie Taylor Greene became national figures, their names and faces filling the late-night talk show monologues almost as much as those of former president Trump. 

Yet, all things being equal, the radicals are now learning that destroying McCarthy was not the same as building something new in their image. Now it’s the turn of the moderates to impose their will on the House and their first ambition is to thwart the chances of the new would-be Speaker.  

After the (relatively/vaguely/barely) moderate figure of Steve Scalise withdrew from the process last week, Jordan stepped forward, attempting to take the third-most powerful position in government. The prospect was as risible as it now looks unlikely. Republican moderates don’t believe that Jordan is the right pick. That part is unsurprising. Jordan does not appear to make friends easily and he has a reputation for creating legislative chaos, having been in the House since 2006 (that’s 23 years) and not having steered a single bill to become law, or, for that matter, pass through the House. Darker rumours also persist. He has been linked to the Ohio State Wrestling Scandal, a story that refuses to disappear, with allegations about Jordan’s role in ignoring sexual abuse within the university. He has also been involved in events following the 6th January 2020, earning a reputation for being Donald Trump’s pit bull on Capitol Hill, as well as a staunch election denier.  

Now it looks like Jordan’s bid is over. Between the first and second vote, he saw more votes slip away, though late Wednesday, he was still unwilling to concede, which again underscores how much he’s in this to ruin the system rather than provide a constructive path forward. Looming is the prospect of a government shutdown when the federal government will run out of money. Which is why we are where we are. Nobody has even the slightest clue as to what happens next, whilst a few malicious actors seek leverage.  

If one had to guess, the path forward will probably involve the Democrats who could end this farce if only moderate Republicans could propose a candidate with bipartisan appeal, with some Republicans already suggesting that interim Speaker, Patrick McHenry, be given temporary power to run the House until a successor is chosen. Kevin McCarthy might have been one such figure had he offered a more conciliatory position and represented a more moderate conservatism. Except McCarthy threw his lot in with the extremists, insulted Democrats, and when it proved that he wasn’t extremist enough, they turned on him. Having turned his back on the Democrats, he was ousted (and was then instrumental in McHenry kicking Nancy Pelosi from her office when he was defeated as payback). 

While the way forward might yet involve a name we don’t yet know, it’s still likely to be a Republican. Republicans could always vote for the House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, but that seems even less likely than the outlandish suggestion that Donald Trump could be elected Speaker. More likely is that Republicans nominate somebody offering broad appeal (or, at least, not representing the hardened obstinacy of the Freedom Caucus) and Democrats bring the endless votes to an end by lending their support to that candidate. It would only need four Republicans to break and vote with Democrats (assuming that Jeffries can keep his side of the aisle united). But, of course, any of these scenarios return us to where we were a few weeks ago. 

Whoever emerges as Speaker is going to be in an onerous position in which they cannot afford to upset whatever coalition of votes brought them to office. We could be in the same situation in six months, six days, or six hours… 

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