Cautious Boris on high alert to avoid Spanish-style second wave

Sir Patrick Vallance is concerned that Britain’s coronavirus pandemic is two to three weeks behind Spain. The government as a whole has been on high-alert since Spain began recording a spike in cases. Britons returning from any region of the country have been ordered to quarantine for two weeks, with the Transport Secretary, Mark Shapps, among them.

This blanket approach has angered the Spanish government, which has rightly noted that many regions in Spain, including tourism-reliant islands off its coast, have lower infection rates than England. The Prime Minister understands this, not least because the Foreign Office has made similar points in internal debates. But Boris Johnson is said to believe that a large response is required to alert the public to the threat of a second peak.

We should expect more similarly drastic measures in the near future. The government has in its armoury four major tools to combat the spread without re-imposing a national lockdown.

First, more European countries will be added to the quarantine list. Ministers are making noises about imposing restrictions on visitors from Luxembourg soon, and they are keeping an eye on Belgium too. The economic impact on the travel and hospitality sector will be severe, as will the diplomatic backlash from allies on the continent, but Downing Street’s approach to Spain suggests they have concluded that these are hits worth taking.

Secondly, local restrictions will be introduced at a hastened pace. Oldham is currently in a pre-lockdown stage, with care homes ordered to restrict visits and residents advised against visiting other households. Rochdale is also facing tougher rules than the rest of the country. Notably, the borough’s rate of infection, 46 cases per 100,000, is less than half the rate of Leicester’s before it entered lockdown, yet council officials are due to meet on Friday to discuss implementing a comprehensive lockdown.

Thirdly testing will be ramped up in England to 500,000 tests per day. The government has launched a public campaign asking people to “get tested” in order to “get back to the things we love.” The consequence is that a double-digit percentage of the population will be monitored every month. Britain already has one of the highest testing rates in Europe with less than half the targeted amount.

Fourth, the quarantine period for people with coronavirus symptoms has been extended from seven to ten days. The government’s scientific advisers have concluded there is a “real possibility” of passing on the virus more than a week after getting ill.

“Evidence, although still limited, has strengthened and shows that people with Covid-19 who are mildly ill and are recovering have a low but real possibility of infectiousness between seven and nine days after illness onset,” said Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer.

There will be questions as to why the tightening of quarantine guidelines has come at such a late stage in the crisis, to be answered at the public inquiry. Indeed, there will be many questions. A data analysis released today by the Office for National Statistics suggests that Britain had the highest level of excess mortality in Europe in the first six months of 2020.

It should be noted, however, that the government has been accused of over-counting deaths. Oxford’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine recently revealed that Public Health England’s definition of a coronavirus death meant that no one in England was allowed to recover from the disease. A person who had tested positive and subsequently died from a separate cause was included in the official coronavirus statistics. PHE has since launched a review into the matter.

The situation in Spain is precisely the opposite. Its government, alongside several others in Europe, has been accused of seriously undercounting deaths. In one instance, a sudden change in the Spanish health ministry’s statistical methodology led to the disappearance of 2,000 previously-reported coronavirus deaths.

Nevertheless, Boris Johnson is said to be circumspect about loosening too quickly. In an interview with the BBC last week he opened himself up to criticism for not going into lockdown sooner, and is now adamant that early mistakes of government complacency should not be repeated. The fear among libertarian Conservatives is that this has resulted in over-compensation – they point to the Spain decision as an example of irrational protectiveness.

But as the fall approaches and the furlough scheme winds down, Johnson will soon have to confront the trade-offs of his government’s safety-first posture. People will not be as comfortable with local lockdowns if there is no compensation for lost salaries. Pilots, captains, cooks, cleaners and receptionists will face mass redundancies if travel restrictions continue to be imposed without extra financial support for the travel and hospitality industry. The impact would be more devastating still if the same approach is taken to schools.

Vallance this week released a job advert for someone to help him prepare “for any future Covid-related audits or inquiries.” The Prime Minister is eager to show he has learnt from early mistakes. Everyone is thinking about the past, but they should not lose sight of the economic and social crises to come.