Centre ground struggling in Spain
It was always on the cards. With youth unemployment still in excess of 30 per cent, Catalonia in turmoil and the focus of Muslim immigration shifting from Italy and Greece to the touristic hot spot Costa del Sol, Spain was bound to feel the pull of populism. And the doomsayers have, so far, not been proved wrong.
The campaign leading up to next month’s general election is proving to be the most hotly-contested since the restoration of Spanish democracy in 1975.
Political norms established in the ’80s and ’90s no longer apply. The centre has fractured and spun out in all directions.
The centre-right People’s Party, led for many years by former prime minister Mariano Rajoy, remains in recovery in the wake of a series of corruption scandals that forced it to retire in 2017. Its successor, the centre-left Socialist Party, which had moved to fill the gap, has itself been obliged to go to the country after the defeat of its spring budget orchestrated in part by Catalan separatists.
No one seems to know how the pieces will fall. All that can be said for certain is that the Far-Right, comprising Vox, an extreme Madrid-first grouping dedicated to the defeat of regional insurgency, and Ciudadanos, economically liberal but utterly opposed to any concessions threatening the unity of the Spanish state, have risen in the polls. On the Far-Left, meanwhile, Podemos (We Can) ought really to be changing its name to No Podemos, as its leaders seem to spend most of their time denouncing each other, causing even the most long-suffering of Marxists to throw up their hands in despair.
The UK may feel that it knows a thing or two about existential crises, having narrowly survived 35 years of insurrection in Northern Ireland, the depredations of the Scottish National Party and the ongoing self-flagellation of Brexit. But in Spain, the very fabric of centralised authority is being ripped apart, not only by the rebels of Catalonia, who have shown no sign of giving up the struggle to regain their ancient nationhood, but by copycat insurgents in Andalusia and Galicia.
Barcelona vs Madrid has taken on a new dimension in recent years. The Spanish capital is in no mood to give way on the absolute sovereignty granted it in the 1978 Constitution. Its author, José Pedro Pérez-Llorca, died this week mourned by centralists as the man who, almost as much as ex-King Juan-Carlos, maintained national unity after the death of Franco. But Barcelona is equally determined not to be bullied. Catalonia’s political class may be divided on the issue of independence, but they are united in demanding that Madrid give them the respect they deserve. And, they appear ready to throw a spanner in the works of any and every scheme dreamed up by Madrid that seeks to diminish their authority.
Six hundred miles to the south, in heat-scorched Seville, the political class of the autonomous region of Andalusia are proving to be equally revolting. Long a Socialist stronghold, Andalusia has moved into a gilet-jaune phase, marked by demands for increased regional power and – inevitably – more money from Madrid. British expatriates tend to think of the Costa del Sol as a year-round holiday resort. Their only concern, apart from fears over Brexit, is that property prices, along with the value of sterling, have dropped since the financial crash of 2008. To its native inhabitants, however, the ravages of unemployment, combined with the growing impact of asylum-seekers, has led to a fresh examination of the political imbalance between Madrid and Seville. They may not – yet – want to break away from the Spanish state, but they most certainly do not wish things to continue as they are.
Looming over this mounting sense of crisis, but not yet in focus, is the fear that peace in the Basque Country, achieved after decades of terrorism perpetrated by the separatist group Eta, could also come to an end. In Bilbao and St Sebastien, the economic recession has proved less severe than in other parts of Spain. Basque autonomy is also the most developed of that of any of the country’s 17 regions. But if Catalonia wins its freedom, or if its struggle reaches a new intensity, there is no guarantee that old antagonisms between Euskadi and Madrid will not flare up anew.
You may think it ironic that Spain is going through this agony at a time when its economy is improving and unemployment lines are growing shorter. Spanish GDP is currently growing at an annualised rate of 2.4 per cent, compared with 1.3 per cent for the UK. Jobs are coming back and there is a returning sense of economic vibrancy. I write from Pamplona, and if it is any kind of useful indicator, the bars and restaurants here were doing brisk trade last night. And the roads leading to the centre beneath my hotel window this morning were thronged with traffic. I can see apartment blocks going up. Motorways are being widened. Shops and businesses in the old town are being renovated and painted in anticipation of the summer that is just around the corner.
Now the election is getting underway with so much sound and fury, it may demonstrate more than anything else that economics is only one among several factors determining a nation’s mood and sense of itself. Identity can be equally important, and in Spain in 2019 identity politics is moving to centre-stage.