China-Taiwan: how worried should we be?

The incursion of a record number of Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone has heightened simmering tensions in the region and reignited fears that military conflict might be imminent, writes Mattie Brignal.  

China’s People’s Liberation Army has sent 149 jets and nuclear-capable bombers into the southern section of the Taiwan Strait in the last four days. While the aircraft did not cross into Taiwanese airspace, they did fly into the area Taiwan monitors for incoming threats.

Both sides have reaffirmed their positions. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Taiwan’s pro-independence President Tsai Ing-wen warned of the “catastrophic consequences” for regional peace if Taiwan falls to China and that “if [Taiwan’s] democracy and way of life are threatened, Taiwan will do whatever it takes to defend itself”. Beijing has reasserted its claim to the island and an editorial in the state-run Chinese newspaper, Global Times, has warned that “war may be triggered at any time”.

Washington responded to China’s move by saying it is “very concerned” by Beijing’s “provocative actions” and reaffirming the “rock-solid” US alliance with Taiwan.

Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign, democratic state while China treats the island as a breakaway province. While the US does not formally recognise Taiwan as an independent nation, it has a security pact to supply the island with military hardware to deter a Chinese invasion, and opposes unification with the mainland.

The US has remained deliberately ambiguous about whether it would intervene were China to invade Taiwan. The possibility of the US going to war with China over Taiwan is why the Strait is considered one of the most volatile regions in the world.  

The muscle-flexing serves a variety of purposes. China-watchers see it as a direct response to Taiwan’s moves to strengthen diplomatic ties with Washington, following foreign minister Joseph Wu’s recent visit to the US. The sorties – which coincide with a joint US-led naval exercise near Taiwan – are also a reminder to the West, in the wake of the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK, that Beijing views the South China Sea as its backyard.

According to Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund: “The Chinese are using these flights increasingly for training purposes and this is actually the end of the typical annual training cycle.

“The other purposes they serve is to signal to the United States and Taiwan not to cross Chinese red lines. And to stress Taiwan’s air force, to force them to scramble, to stretch the aircraft, the pilots, force them to do more maintenance and test the responses of Taiwan’s air defence system.”

The incursions are part of a toolbox of “grey-zone” warfare tactics – including cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns – designed to intimidate, which have been stepped up in recent months.

“It’s a little like the threat of nuclear war of the Cold War,” says Dafydd Fell, director of the SOAS Centre of Taiwan Studies. “The threat has grown over time with China’s increased military capacity. It’s important to remember the psychological impact that this has on Taiwan’s population.”

The stepping up of pressure on Taiwan coincides with China’s week-long National Day celebrations, suggesting that President Xi, beset by a domestic energy crisis and the property giant Evergrande teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, is also playing to the domestic gallery.

It’s highly unlikely that the sabre-rattling is a direct prelude to war. Invading Taiwan – an island whose geography makes it well-suited to defence – would be extremely risky for China. Analysts estimate that upwards of a million troops might be needed, and their build-up would be impossible to hide.

But even if the added pressure on Taiwan isn’t designed to precipitate conflict, it heightens the risk of an accident or miscalculation triggering a military response. This is the real reason to be concerned about China’s latest power-play.