Closed schools, restricted travel, and medical rationing: what coronavirus could mean for the UK

Coronavirus has now infected 82,161 people, and killed 2,801. Even as the rate of infection apparently slows in China, home to the vast majority of infections and deaths, new hotspots have begun to appear.

South Korea now has the second highest number of infections, 1,595 with 13 dead, following a sudden explosion of cases linked to the Shincheonji Church.

Italy has the third highest rate of infection the number of infected jumping by over 25% in the past 24h to 453 confirmed cases and 12 deaths. Travellers from Italy are now carrying it across Europe and the world with cases linked to them reported in Austria, Croatia, Greece, Norway, Georgia, Macedonia, Switzerland, Spain, Algeria, and Brazil.

Fourth and fifth on this grim ranking are Japan and Iran, though the real number of infected and deceased in these countries is speculated by some to be substantially higher.

For the moment the UK is relatively untouched. With over 7,000 tested for the virus since January only 15 people have been diagnosed with it, and there have been no deaths.

However, the disease is thought to be unusually contagious – each carrier infecting on average four people – even though mortality rates are fairly low, around 2%. The government has moved to step up testing. Up until now only those who were both displaying symptoms and had recently travelled to areas where there was an ongoing outbreak were being tested. Now those without this travel history and those displaying only mild symptoms are to be tested with centres to do so being set up in 100 GPs’ surgeries and 8 hospitals across the country.

Thee health secretary, Matt Hancock, has stated that if coronavirus becomes a pandemic – as the World Health Organisation has warned it likely will – we will not be able to stop it coming to the UK “in a big way”. Yesterday, even as he warned the Commons it was important not to overreact, he outlined the government’s coronavirus strategy, “contain, delay, research, and mitigate”.

So, what would this strategy mean? It would mean lockdown. China has provided the most extreme example of this . Every major city in the province of Hubei has been placed under quarantine. Travel is sharply restricted to the province, and 57 million people are subject to regulations that only allows one person per household to leave the house every two days. While controls are less severe in other provinces streets, cinemas, bars, and workplaces have emptied as people stay home and avoid crowds. Many factories remain closed despite attempts to get the population back to work.

Of course, China’s vast population, authoritarian system, and status as the epicentre of the epidemic means have contributed to the dramatic scale and severity of the measures taken. However, in South Korea the city of Daegu at the centre of its outbreak saw streets deserted. The government is now planning to subject it to “maximum” quarantine, this appears to be just short of complete lockdown.

Meanwhile, Italy’s few hundred cases have seen parts of its economic heartland locked down with the government placing 11 towns, with over 50,000 inhabitants, under quarantine. Public events have been cancelled or postponed in affected areas including the Milan Fashion Week and Serie A football games.

International travel is beginning to be restricted. Flights to China have been cancelled. The Ireland vs Italy Six Nations Game in Dublin has also been postponed due to the risk of spreading infection. Saudi Arabia has banned foreign pilgrims from visiting Mecca.

Some of these measures are starting to come to the UK. While travel restrictions have not been implemented self-quarantine measures for those who may have been exposed to the virus, usually by travelling to an affected area, have been in place for a few weeks. Two Labour MPs are among the affected. Now some schools whose pupils had travelled to Italy on school trips have closed sending their students home. The oil firm Chevron asked its 300 strong London staff to work from home yesterday while one employee is tested for the virus.

If a major outbreak occurs five specialist hospitals stand ready backed up by over 20 regional centres. However, the NHS is under strain already facing it’s most difficult winter for a generation and medics have been privately rejecting government claims that the NHS is well prepared for an out break.

The government’s own worst case scenarios drawn up by the government, and leaked to The Sun, imagine 80% of the population could be infected leading to 500,000 deaths. Under these circumstances care would likely be rationed as doctors allocate limited resources like ventilators to patients deemed most likely to survive.

Even if coronavirus fails to get a strong foothold in the UK its effects abroad stand to have major domestic repercussions. Factory closures in China have seen Jaguar Land Rover warn that it risks running out parts soon. Shortages of some goods could be worsened by panic buying. If this happens it will temporarily shutter its factories which employ some 3000 people in the UK. As awareness of how coronavirus is disrupting supply chains and reducing consumption grows stocks have begun to slide. Some countries such as Japan and Italy now risk recession, and weaknesses in other areas could see this could become a global phenomenon.

As quarantine spreads, playing catch-up with the virus, it is worth reflecting on the origins of the word. Facing the Black Death’s terrifying spread across Eurasia the Venetian Senate passed a law designed to try and check it – ships entering the port has to wait quaranta giorni, forty days. In these days of just-in-time manufacturing, mass commercial air travel, and next day Amazon deliveries how well will people cope with the novel experience many will soon be subject to, having to sit at home and wait?