In Series 4 Episode 4 of Mad Men, a period drama set on Madison Avenue in the 1960s, star advertising executive Donald Draper gave this response to a market researcher whose focus group showed no support for his campaign: “A new idea is something [the public] don’t know yet, so of course it’s not going to come up as an option. Put my campaign on TV for a year and we’ll hold your group again and maybe it’ll show up.”
Shunning Mad Men and instead drawing inspiration from The Thick of It, the government hasn’t received the message. Its retreat on Student visa dependents – with international students starting courses this month no longer be able to bring family members on almost all courses – shows chasing public opinion on immigration has made them look both out-of-touch and incompetent. Its fortunes will only reverse if it leads, rather than follows.
For years, the Conservatives have talked tough on immigration. David Cameron won power promising to reduce net immigration to “tens of thousands”. Then Home Secretary Theresa May vowed to create a “really hostile environment” for illegal immigrants, planning for vans emblazoned with the slogan “Go Home” to tour areas with high immigrant populations. More recently, Boris Johnson committed to wean Britain off “uncontrolled immigration” and Suella Braverman spoke of her “dream” of sending illegal immigrants on flights to Rwanda.
But the government’s record – judged by its own rhetoric – is abysmal. Net migration reached three-quarters of a million in 2022 (the most recently available data), three times higher than in 2010. Over the same period, illegal immigration rose sharply to 45,000. It’s hard to escape the conclusion that the Conservatives are incompetent. Even Lee Anderson, the Party’s Deputy Chairman, said his party had “failed.”
Poor policy is part of the problem. The Graduate visa, introduced in July 2021, enables international undergraduate students to remain in the UK for two years after their course. So far, 176,000 students have received this visa, with a further 37,000 dependants, greatly exceeding the government’s estimates. But they were warned – by their own quango. In 2018, the Migration Advisory Committee said that such a system would encourage “low-wage migration and universities marketing themselves on post-study employment potential rather than educational quality.” This prediction came true, with students able to earn £70,000 during their visas on minimum wage jobs (many in the gig economy, as highlighted by Neil O’Brien) in exchange for masters courses costing as little as £5,000. Removing student visa dependents alone won’t fix this.
Except, the Conservatives don’t really want to fix it – at least, not fully. The rise in student visa numbers – itself the largest factor behind the rise in net migration recently – is a product of deliberate government policy, not incompetence. In 2019, the government published its International Education Strategy which aimed to “grow the numbers of international higher education students studying in the UK to 600,000 by 2030.” The Student visa and Graduate visa were introduced to achieve it. Although the government hit that target much sooner than planned, its outrage (Monday’s press release promised “tough government action”) is manufactured.
There were good reasons to boost international student numbers. With tuition fees for domestic students frozen, international students paying multiples for the same courses have kept universities afloat. More broadly, a study showed international students and their dependents generate a net benefit of £37.4bn for the UK economy. International students can also be a profitable pipeline, with some applying for a Skilled Worker visa (although there is no guaranteed route), where most then become net contributors.
Does this make the government traitors (because it certainly makes them hypocrites)? We’re told the public want lower immigration. That’s what voters say in every poll. Immigration consistently tracks as one of the most important issues facing the country. And voters have shown their support for parties and campaigns which promise to lower immigration, whether that be the Conservatives, Ukip, and, of course, Brexit.
But the public wants a lot of things, all of which aren’t necessarily consistent. The public wants fewer immigrants, true. Yet it also wants more “nurses, doctors and fruit-pickers … carers, academics, computer whizzes and students … [and] refugees from Ukraine and Hong Kong.” As the Economist said: “Britons may not much like immigration, but they are keen on immigrants.” But even this exaggerates the extent of the public’s cognitive dissonance. The UK has some of the most positive attitudes towards immigrants in Europe (more positive than negative), and the trend is upwards.
Neither out-of-touch nor wholly incompetent, the Conservatives are instead guilty of governing by focus group. Contorting themselves to give voters what they want – or what the Conservatives think voters wants – never leading them forwards with a popular vision. The result is the present quagmire: the government getting angry about its own poor and inconsistent policy, and misinformation proliferating among voters – and politicos.
We need a grown-up conversation about the complexities of migration – from a vision-led government – that gets all the facts (and taboos) out in the open. I think voters are ready for it. But that’s just an idea. It won’t show up in a focus group.
Ben Cope is a political commentator. Find him on twitter/X at: @BenHCope
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