Coronavirus: death rate is 3.4% says WHO

The World Health organisation has declared that coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.4%, revising it up from earlier estimates of 2%. By comparison seasonal flu only has a mortality rate of 0.1%. Coronavirus is also particularly dangerous for the elderly.

But the WHO went on qualify this statement by noting that coronavirus’ actual mortality rate may turn out to be somewhat lower – and it will probably be revised down as more mild cases are detected.

Indeed, there is considerable evidence that many coronavirus cases are going undetected – or unreported. In the US only 128 cases, spread across a number of states, have been recorded so far. Yet with 9 reported deaths, all in Washington state, the US’s mortality rate is unusually high at 7%, suggesting a number of cases have slipped under the radar.

The US has already come in for considerable criticism for failing to test enough people for the virus. In response Vice President Mike Pence, who heads up the anti-coronavirus taskforce, has declared that the strict criteria which had previously limited who could be tested for the virus was to be lifted and new guidelines on how to speed up the testing are to be released. The Centre for Disease Control has also said that local communities should start thinking about ways to limit coronavirus’ spread by reducing face to face contact.

In another hotspot, the Iranian government is still widely suspected of deliberately under-reporting the number of coronavirus cases in the country. While the number of reported cases has risen sharply over the past few days to 2,922 Iran is still claiming only 77 patients have died from the virus. This is despite the BBC Persian service reports last week claiming there had already been at least 210 deaths. Still, Iran seems to be taking the crisis more seriously now with its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announcing that the Iranian army will start assisting with the efforts to combat coronavirus.

It is possible that Iran’s situation is worse than that in South Korea, which has reported a total of 5,328 cases and 28 deaths. The South Korean government is now scrambling to find enough hospital beds for its patients as the number of new infections reported has even outstripped China.

While China remains the epicentre of the infection – accounting for 80,270 of the 94,283 cases reported globally and 2,991 of the 3,214 deaths – the rate of infection seems to be slowing there. Experts have credited its strong quarantine measures with helping bring the virus’ spread under control domestically.

Health officials believe that the rate of infection has also slowed in Italy, which has reported 2,502 cases, though the number of deaths has suddenly jumped to 79. The Italian government now plans to expand its measures to contain the spread closing all schools and universities until mid-March. It is also expected to release new rules which will recommend Italians cease to greet one another by kissing.

Other countries are also putting in place measures to try and limit the virus’ spread before a significant number of cases develop. India has only reported 17 cases so far, 14 of which were Italian tourists on a tour group. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tweeted that he will not participate in any Holi celebrations, and discouraged others from doing so in a bid to limit large crowds which might encourage infection.

For its part, Israel has imposed tough travel restrictions on France, Germany, Spain, Austria and Switzerland. Citizens in those countries are being ordered to return home and self-isolate for 14 days, and non-residents travelling from them will be required to prove they can self-isolate to be granted entry.

The UK, which has just seen its number of cases jump from 51 to 85, is trying to combine increased testing with containment measures. To this end, it has set up drive-through coronavirus testing sites and encouraged hospitals to carry out more video-based consultations with patients.

The government is also bringing forward legislation to allow statutory sick leave to be paid on the first day of sickness instead of after four days to encourage people to self-isolate if they believe they might be suffering from coronavirus. The move was perhaps prompted by official estimates that up to 1/5 of the UK’s workforce may be off sick at the epidemic’s peak.

Facebook has also taken action stepping up its efforts to combat disinformation about coronavirus. After the social media network was used to spread false claims about the virus, Facebook HA is now working to remove them and offer free advertising to global health officials. In addition, anyone searching for coronavirus on its site will be shown a pop-up directing it to up to date information provided by the WHO or local health authorities.

Still, the biggest threat now is not misinformation but shortages of vital medical supplies. In France, the government has declared it will control the distribution of medical masks, following reported theft of 10,000. Germany has banned the export of all personal protective equipment, including masks and gloves. Still worries about supplies persist.

Most worryingly the world could also face shortages of basic medicines. India, one the world’s biggest producers of generic medicines, has limited export of some drugs including paracetamol in order to ensure it has a sufficient supply for itself. This has been sparked by fears of a shortage of vital pharmaceutical components, APIs, a large proportion of which are produced in China. Inevitably, this means other countries now risk significant disruption to their supplies.