Could Biden’s threat prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

Would you rather be crushed under the wheels of history or submerged by its tide?

I ask only because there was a rhetorical twist concerning Taiwan from the Chinese leadership at the U.N. General Assembly which ended earlier this week. Whereas normally the tide of history is invoked when it come to the “inevitable re-unification” of Taiwan with the mainland, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, switched to warning that anyone standing in the way of this will be “crushed by the wheels of history.” Any external influence trying to prevent reunification would be met with “the most forceful steps”.

This sounded like a response to President Biden’s pledge a few days earlier that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan, “if in fact there was an unprecedented attack”. CBS 60 Minutes host Scott Pelley sought clarification – “U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?” The answer was “Yes”.  So, Mr Wang decided to remind him that the answer should be “No”.

The White House did what the White House does and “walked back” Biden’s interview saying that U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed, and “strategic ambiguity” still applied. This approach has worn thin even if he still has some wiggle room. He didn’t say the U.S. Marine Corp would be fighting the Peoples Liberation Army on the landing beaches in front of Taipei, and there are logistical ways in which American forces could help Taiwan. However, the excuse of an “off the cuff remark’ is plausible once, maybe twice if you‘re generous, but when an American president says the same thing four times it suggests a clearly intended signal especially so soon after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island this summer.

After Wang met his American counterpart Antony Blinken on the Assembly’s margins, the official statements from their offices did not suggest a meeting of minds. State Department officials said Blinken pressed Wang to end provocative actions against Taiwan. China’s Foreign Ministry said Wang told Blinken that “Current China-U.S. relations are facing grave impacts”. He also spoke about the “U.S side’s recent erroneous acts on the Taiwan question.” Among them were probably Pelosi’s visit and this year’s Taiwan Policy Act 2022 which is currently going through the Senate. In a speech at the Asia Society in New York last week Wang said the Act “threatens the very foundation of China-U.S. relations. even though the White House watered some of it down to placate Beijing.”

The bill increases weapons sales to Taiwan, expands the training of its armed forces, and allows for a “regional contingency stockpile” of important military equipment to be positioned at an unspecified location for use if a war breaks out over Taiwan. The original draft said they would be positioned on the island.

Most senior American analysts of China believe that Beijing fully expects Washington to send troops to defend Taiwan if it is invaded. In a recent CSIS poll every one of the 64 experts polled believed this to be the case. If they are right, then Biden’s latest comments re-enforce Beijing’s view. But do they make a difference? Some analysts say they don’t – that if President Xi has made his mind up to invade – then he will invade. However, that assumes he has made up his mind. He may have done, we may be on an inexorable path, or indeed the wheels of history, leading to invasion. But if he hasn’t, then Biden’s remarks are, at the least, a potential restraining factor.

China is certainly constructing the military capability to invade or blockade Taiwan. It is building landing craft and it invests heavily in “anti-access/area denial” equipment designed to be able to hit U.S. forces hundreds of miles from Taiwan and thus dissuade them from approaching. American equipment engineered to neuter the threat may not be ready until the end of the decade which means a “window of vulnerability” for both Taiwan and U.S. forces which could tempt Xi to gamble. The PLA Navy appears to have mastered landing planes on its aircraft carriers in stormy weather and at night, skills it hitherto lacked, and a third aircraft carrier was launched this summer. It may have five carriers by 2030. The USA currently has eleven, most of which are technically superior.

During the military exercises China carried out around Taiwan, after Pelosi flew home, Beijing issued a long-awaited White Paper on “The Taiwan question”. It promised “utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification”, then warned “But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures”.

It ends: “The historic goal of reuniting our motherland must be realised and will be realised”. That is in the genre of rhetoric Wang used at the UN to create an air of inevitability about the future. Biden’s words were designed to remind Beijing that the future is not yet written.

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