Could the pandemic really be over?
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The number of new Covid cases reported in the UK has continued to fall for the seventh day in a row – the first time this has happened since November, during England’s second national lockdown.
New daily cases are now at 20,290 – down by more than half from 43,261 last Tuesday. It is the first time since the start of the pandemic that a sustained drop in cases has not coincided with a national lockdown.
The prolonged downturn has prompted some to wonder – whisper it quietly – whether the pandemic might be on the way out. Even “Professor Lockdown” and predictor of doom, Professor Neil Ferguson, said he was “positive” that England will “put the bulk of the pandemic behind us” by October.
But what is behind the drop in cases? Is it just a blip, or can we throw ourselves behind Ferguson’s rare display of optimism?
Under what is undoubtedly the gloomiest theory, case numbers have dropped because of a temporary drop in testing. School holidays mean that children are no longer subject to frequent testing and widespread frustration at the “pingdemic” could be dissuading people from getting a test. The upcoming results from the Office for National Statistics’ infection survey should be able to shed some light on whether cases are actually going down in the community.
The other gloomy but plausible theory on the lips of many experts is that the latest figures do not include the impact of the 19 July unlocking, when most restrictions on social contact in England were lifted – and that cases could rise again in the coming weeks.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that while the present data was “looking good for at least the summer”, case numbers might not begin to reflect the impact of “Freedom Day” until next Friday.
Another “public behaviour” theory being mooted is that the drop in cases reflects the end of the Euros, with fewer people now meeting up in poorly ventilated pubs or homes. The gender split between infections in men and women during the football championship, as well as the fact that Scotland saw cases fall sooner than England – in line with the timing of their exit from the Euros – both support this theory.
Last week’s heatwave has also been suggested as a potential reason for the drop in cases – with more people meeting outside where it is harder to transmit the virus.
Then there is the government’s preferred theory – that the UK’s vaccine rollout has reduced transmissions and curtailed the rise of cases. The latest figures on vaccinations show 46,589,211 people have now had a first dose, while 37,287,384 have received a second dose.
The vaccines also seem to have had a positive effect on limiting the number of deaths and hospitalisations. Professor Mark Woolhouse, of the University of Edinburgh, who sits on the Spi-M advisory committee, said: “Hospitalisations and deaths are starting to track cases but at a far, far lower level — by the best estimates around about ten times lower, maybe more — than they would have done before.”
The real dip in deaths and hospitalisations could be even more encouraging than this number suggests. Leaked data from NHS trusts reveals that more than half of Covid hospitalisations are patients who only tested positive after admission.
Ultimately, scientists are still a bit baffled about the drop in cases – and Number 10 is not taking any chances. Johnson has warned people not to “run away with premature conclusions” and said the situation could deteriorate again within weeks.
At the moment, there is not much left to do other than to watch and wait to see what happens with case numbers, deaths and hospitalisations. But if the current trend continues, the UK will become a beacon of hope for countries around the world who are waiting to see if a successful vaccine rollout could mark the return to something a lot more like normal.
Olivia Gavoyannis,
Reaction Reporter