Counter-intuitive thought: May’s deal might yet get through
Amid extraordinary scenes the Prime Minister came to the House of Commons today to tell MPs why the agreement she has negotiated with the European Commission is the right way forward for the country. With barely an exception, MP after MP, from across the party divide, stood up and criticised her and the agreement. To her face and on the floor of the House of Commons she was openly and personally challenged from her own benches. Not since Anthony Eden or before him Neville Chamberlain can a Conservative Prime Minister been treated so dismissively by members of her own parliamentary party.
The day had begun with a blistering attack on her and her policy in the pages of the Daily Telegraph by her former Chief of Staff and long-term aide Nick Timothy. Outside the Chamber members of her government were resigning, the pound was falling, notable parliamentary colleagues were closeted in their offices plotting, and the nation at large carried on about their daily lives. Never has the carry on at Westminster seemed more removed from the cares and concerns of the citizenry than it was today.
The previous day had seen a five-hour Cabinet meeting and an impassioned live television plea by her standing in Downing Street, whilst being audibly heckled from beyond the gates at the other end of the road. Yesterday and today the Prime Minister once again demonstrated her extraordinary resilience and stamina. If persistence and resolve were key vote winners Mrs May would now have a huge Parliamentary majority. What, however, happens now?
In summary it is this. A special EU summit will take place, they will approve the agreement, it will then come to a Parliamentary vote. As things stand today there are some who suggest Mrs May will struggle to win enough votes of support in the House of Commons to win the vote. They may be right. This will not stop the Prime Minister bringing the agreement to the House of Commons for a vote. If she loses that vote it will then be a matter of a vote of confidence in the government. Conservative MPs and the DUP can then make their choice of whether to support the Prime Minister or not.
It is now, as it was always going to have to be, a straight, brutal and bruising fight inside and between the political parties. Mrs May and all her colleagues in leadership roles in government have to win or lose. If they win then their view prevails. If they lose Mrs May and her colleagues will be out, having tried and failed.
Mrs May’s Brexit Agreement offers a reasonable, credible, deliverable, and stable way through a transition period from membership of the EU to non-membership. It offers consistency and a series of known positions. This reassures business – not just big corporates who everyone likes to have a good go at – bust also small and medium-sized businesses who also rely on international and European supply chains. Mrs May’s deal offers gradual and steady change. For that reason, it is despised by those who just want to be shot of the whole European Union relationship. Challenging Mrs May’s leadership, which in any event seems unlikely to gain enough votes to succeed, will not stop the agreement being brought forward for a vote.
Behind all the noise and hub-bub, all the resignations and letters floating about, it is possible, even today, to discern that, in the end, Mrs May will indeed win enough votes for her Brexit Agreement to succeed.