“The fog of war” is a rather clichéd expression that accurately describes the confusion that can shroud events when belligerents engage in intensive combat. It is often used by frustrated journalists to invoke the difficulties of accurate reporting when both the dislocation of battle lines and the security blackout that descends like a blanket on both sides obstruct access to detailed information from the front lines.

In the case of the war in Ukraine, there is a further dimension of obscurity. Although few conflicts have had clearer strategic aims – the Russians to absorb the Donbas and retain occupation of Crimea, the Ukrainians to reclaim both territories – in recent months the tactical situation has become more opaque. It is a measure of the anomalous military situation that has developed that both sides can legitimately claim simultaneously to be advancing.